NAGOYA RACECOURSE // GRADED STAKES PREVIEW :Clash of Titans: Astrabianco vs. Ultimatum in the 2026 Shinshun Pegasus Cup

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2026.01.132026.02.27

January 15, 2026

The 28th Shinshun Pegasus Cup, held at Nagoya Racecourse, is set for a thrilling showdown between top contenders Astrabianco and Ultimatum. We break down the key factors for this 1700m dirt race, analyzing recent form, pedigree, and race dynamics.

Key Takeaways
In This Analysis
Race 11: Shinshun Pegasus Cup Analysis
1. Point 1: Astrabianco Leads with Distance and Record
2. Point 2: Ultimatum’s Top-Tier Speed Faces a Distance Challenge
3. Point 3: Biplook Rides a Wave of Momentum After a Decisive Win
4. Point 4: Watch Out for Dark Horses with Distance Experience
Our Final Prediction
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Key Takeaways

✓Astrabianco leads with proven distance suitability and a strong track record, aiming for back-to-back graded stakes wins.
✓Ultimatum’s speed is a major weapon, but adapting to the 1700m distance for the first time is the critical question.
✓Biplook, a JRA transfer, enters with momentum after a decisive victory in his first start of the year.
✓Dark horses with distance experience, like Berry Proud and Anracol, could upset the favorites.

In This Analysis

Race 11: Shinshun Pegasus Cup Analysis

The 28th Shinshun Pegasus Cup (SP2), a graded stakes race for 3-year-olds, will be held on Thursday, January 15, 2026, at Nagoya Racecourse. This 1700m dirt race will feature the next generation of stars in Tokai’s public horse racing circuit. Here, we break down the key points to predict the race’s outcome based on recent performance and pedigree.

HorseSex/AgeSire / Dam’s SireKey AchievementPoint of InterestAstrabiancoColt, 3Bago / KurofuneGold Wing Sho (G) WinnerPower, Stamina, ConsistencyUltimatumColt, 3Smart Falcon / Hishi MiracleWakagoma Hai WinnerRaw Speed, 1700m TestBiplookColt, 3Eishin Flash / Victoire PisaIwaibashi Sho WinnerStrong Pedigree, High PotentialBerry ProudFilly, 3Majestic Warrior / Black Tide2nd in Hiyou Tokubetsu (1700m)Proven at 1700m, Power BloodlineAnracolFilly, 3– / –3rd in Baika Tokubetsu (1400m)Tenacious Runner, Pace Dependent

Point 1: Astrabianco Leads with Distance and Record

The central figure in this race is #5 Astrabianco (Colt, 3, Teruya Tsunoda stable). His pedigree, sired by Arc de Triomphe winner Bago out of a mare by dirt champion Kurofune, suggests a perfect blend of power and stamina, making him ideally suited for the tough 1700m course.

His performance record also puts him ahead of the field. In his previous start, the Gold Wing Sho (Graded), he clocked an impressive 1:49.3 to win on this same Nagoya 1700m track. With a career record of 4 wins and 1 second-place finish, his consistency is undeniable, and he is a strong contender for back-to-back graded stakes victories.

Point 2: Ultimatum’s Top-Tier Speed Faces a Distance Challenge

The main rival is #1 Ultimatum (Colt, 3, Hiroyuki Imazu stable). He boasts a powerful pedigree, sired by dirt legend Smart Falcon (winner of the JBC Classic) with a dam’s sire Hishi Miracle (winner of the Kikuka Sho and Tenno Sho Spring).

In his last race, the Wakagoma Hai, he led from start to finish over 1500m, winning with a fast time of 1:37.2. With an undefeated record of 2 wins in 2 starts, his potential is immense. However, this will be his first attempt at 1700m. The key question is whether his inherited speed will be enough to dominate, or if the extended distance will prove to be a challenge.

Point 3: Biplook Rides a Wave of Momentum After a Decisive Win

A formidable dark horse is #3 Biplook (Colt, 3, Kesao Sakurai stable). In his first race since transferring from the JRA on January 3rd, the Iwaibashi Sho (3-year-old class), he won the 1500m race on a slightly heavy track in 1:39.8, immediately proving his suitability for regional racing.

He is a well-bred horse, sired by Derby winner Eishin Flash with a dam’s sire Victoire Pisa, a Dubai World Cup champion. With expected improvement in his second start after the transfer, it would be no surprise to see him clinch a graded stakes title.

Point 4: Watch Out for Dark Horses with Distance Experience

#7 Berry Proud (Filly, 3) also has experience at 1700m. In her last race on December 23rd, the Hiyou Tokubetsu, she finished second over 1700m on a slightly heavy track in 1:52.2, demonstrating her ability to handle the distance. Her power-oriented pedigree, by Majestic Warrior out of a Black Tide mare, is also appealing.

Additionally, #6 Anracol (Filly, 3) showed a tenacious run to finish third in the Baika Tokubetsu on January 4th (1:30.0 / 1400m). Although she is entering on a tight schedule, she could be a threat for a top spot depending on the race’s pace.

Our Final Prediction

For our final analysis, betting strategy, and top picks combining AI insights with expert opinion, please visit the link below.View Final Picks on Netkeiba

AI Predicts! Top Contenders for the 2025 Shinshun Pegasus Cup

A look back at last year’s AI analysis.Tokai Kikuka Sho 2024: In-Depth Analysis and Generative AI PredictionsAnalyzing another major regional stakes race.How to Use Smart Race Cards to Enhance Your Regional Horse Racing PredictionsA guide to advanced handicapping tools.

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