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Graded Race Preview : Kounotori Sho 2026: Race Analysis : In-Depth Look at Top Contenders Smart Amber & Lavien

By Horse Racing Content Specialist•January 15, 2026

The Kounotori Sho, a premier graded race on January 15, 2026, at Sonoda Racecourse (1870m, Dirt), is a crucial showdown to crown the queen of Western Japan’s racing circuit. This article provides a deep dive into the race, analyzing the training conditions and pedigree of top contenders like Smart Amber and Lavien.

目次

1. Table of Contents

2. Key Takeaways

3. Entries & Predicted Odds

4. Contender Analysis & Key Pointers

   1. Smart Amber: The Proven JRA Performer
   2. Lavien: Last Year’s Champion Aiming for a Repeat
   3. Smile Misha: The Resurgent Veteran

5. Recent Training Data Highlights

6. Conclusion: The 2026 Kounotori Sho Verdict

7. Final Picks & Detailed Analysis

Table of Contents

1. Entries & Predicted Odds

2. Contender Analysis

   1. Smart Amber
   2. Lavien
   3. Smile Misha

3. Recent Training Data

4. Conclusion

5. Final Picks & Details

Key Takeaways

• ➜The Kounotori Sho is a set-weight race for fillies and mares at Sonoda on Jan 15, 2026.
• ➜Smart Amber, a 3-time JRA winner, won impressively on her first start after transferring and shows excellent training form.
• ➜Lavien, last year’s Kounotori Sho champion, is showing signs of a comeback with a recent victory.
• ➜Smile Misha, a proven performer, has finished in the top two in this race for the past two years and cannot be overlooked.
• ➜Kimino Heart and Acute Girl have also shown exceptional form in recent workouts.
• ➜Pedigree-wise, progeny of power/speed sires like Sinister Minister (Smart Amber) and Leontes (Lavien) are ones to watch.

Entries & Predicted Odds

Let’s start by reviewing the top contenders based on predicted odds.

Horse NameSex/AgeStableOddsRankSmart AmberF6Hyogo – Taro Nagashima2.81st Fav.Monge GiftF5Hyogo – Yoshihiro Iida4.92nd Fav.LavienF6Hyogo – Ryohei Hori5.03rd Fav.ViriyaF5Hyogo – Kazuyoshi Tanaka5.44th Fav.

Contender Analysis & Key Pointers

Smart Amber: The Proven JRA Performer

Smart Amber burst onto the scene as a main contender with a decisive win in her first race (A1) after transferring. While at JRA, she secured three victories on dirt over 1400m. Since her last race, she has been specifically prepared for this target. Trainer Nagashima expressed satisfaction: “She showed the movement we were looking for in her workout, has put on weight, and is finishing up nicely.”

Her final workout on January 11 (Sun) at Nishiwaki on a good track was impressive, clocking 66.9-50.3-36.3 (strong canter), indicating she’s in peak condition. Her sire is the renowned dirt stallion Sinister Minister, and her damsire is Grand Prix horse Dream Journey. While the extended distance is a question, her previous win suggests she has untapped potential.

Lavien: Last Year’s Champion Aiming for a Repeat

Last year’s winner, Lavien, is another horse to watch closely. She won her previous A2 race and finished second in last year’s Hyogo Queen Cup, showing a resurgence in her racing precision. Trainer Ryohei Hori is confident: “She’s the defending champion and can definitely compete for the win in a graded race.”

In her workout on January 9 (Fri) on a good track at Sonoda, she clocked 68.8-51.5-37.8 (light strong canter). Sired by Leontes with Kurofune as her damsire, her suitability for the Sonoda track is arguably the best in the field.

Smile Misha: The Resurgent Veteran

Don’t overlook Smile Misha, the established performer from two years ago. Although she hasn’t been winning lately, she is a “repeater” in the Kounotori Sho, having placed in the top two for the past two consecutive years.

Her workout on January 9 (Fri) showed sharp movement on a good Sonoda track, with a time of 64.9-49.9-36.8 (strong canter), earning the comment “returning to her peak form.” With a pedigree of sire Karen Black Hill and damsire Symboli Kris S, combining power and stamina, a comeback performance would not be surprising.

Recent Training Data Highlights

Let’s find the in-form horses by looking at their recent preparation.

Horse NameDateTrackTime (Splits)CommentsKimino HeartJan 9 (Fri)Sonoda – Good52.0-38.1 (Lt. Strong)“Pulled away instantly,” finished 2.4s ahead of partner. Exceptional form.Acute GirlJan 9 (Fri)Sonoda – Good67.0-51.2-37.8 (On Bridle)Trainer Obayashi: “Her condition is fully prepared.” Recorded a great time effortlessly.ViriyaDec 31 (Wed)Sonoda – Good67.0-51.2-38.1 (On Bridle)Returning after a break, but has completed thorough year-end workouts.

Conclusion: The 2026 Kounotori Sho Verdict

The 2026 Kounotori Sho presents a fascinating matchup: will it be the comeback of an established star or the rise of a new talent? Factors like distance suitability, race pace, and paddock condition on the day will likely be decisive.

From a pedigree standpoint, keep an eye on the progeny of sires that blend power and speed, such as Sinister Minister (Smart Amber) and Leontes (Lavien).

Final Picks & Detailed Analysis

For our final selections, betting strategy, and a more detailed breakdown, please visit the links below.

• Final Kounotori Sho Predictions (netkeiba.com) →
• 2025 Kounotori Sho Contender Predictions →
• Hyogo Queen’s Cup 2025 Predictions →
• Introduction to Horse Racing Data Analysis →

ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

Next コウノトリ賞2026：スマートアンバー、ラヴィアンら有力馬を徹底分析！ »

Previous « Ooi Racecourse features a compelling lineup, from promising young horses to seasoned veterans. Particularly noteworthy are Sharkle in Race 1 and Tintoretto in Race 11.

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