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GII Race Preview : Nikkei Shinshun Hai 2026: Workout Analysis & Outlook

January 12, 2026 / Updated: January 12, 2026

We break down the 73rd Nikkei Shinshun Hai (GII, 2400m Turf) at Kyoto Racecourse on Sunday, January 18, 2026. This report delivers pre-race workout evaluations for top contenders, including Kikuka Sho 4th-place finisher Geltuchtar and the blue-blooded Shining Sword. Focusing on handicap trends, course specifics, and mid-winter conditioning, we provide a thorough analysis of this key prep race for the spring G1 season.

目次

1. Key Takeaways

2. Contents

3. 1. Race Preview & Betting Angles

   1. Kyoto 2400m Turf (Outer) Course Profile
   2. Handicap Race Trends
   3. Importance of Pre-Race Workouts

4. 2. Top Contenders: Analysis & Workout Ratings

   1. Geltuchtar (c.4, Ritto, H. Sugiyama Stable)

      1. Analysis:
      2. Pre-Race Workout Evaluation: A

   2. Shining Sword (h.5, Ritto, M. Nakauchida Stable)

      1. Analysis:
      2. Pre-Race Workout Evaluation: B+

   3. Submarina (h.5, Ritto, Y. Shono Stable)

      1. Analysis:
      2. Pre-Race Workout Evaluation: A

   4. Yamanin Bouquet (c.4, Ritto, M. Matsunaga Stable)

      1. Analysis:
      2. Pre-Race Workout Evaluation: B

   5. Lilac (m.7, Miho, S. Aizawa Stable)

      1. Analysis:
      2. Pre-Race Workout Evaluation: B+

5. 3. Other Horses to Watch

6. 4. Conclusion

7. 5. Related Articles

Key Takeaways

• The Nikkei Shinshun Hai is a traditional handicap stakes race held over 2400m on the outer turf course at Kyoto.
• Kyoto’s winter turf tends to be demanding, favoring horses with proven stamina and power.
• Geltuchtar, impressive in his 4th place Kikuka Sho finish, earned a top “A” rating for his pre-race workout, indicating peak condition.
• Shining Sword and Submarina are other key contenders looking to make a strong comeback.
• Final workout performances and the official handicap weights will be crucial factors in determining the race outcome.

Contents

1. Race Preview & Betting Angles

   1. Kyoto 2400m Turf (Outer) Course Profile
   2. Handicap Race Trends
   3. Importance of Pre-Race Workouts

2. Top Contenders: Analysis & Workout Ratings

   1. Geltuchtar (c.4)
   2. Shining Sword (h.5)
   3. Submarina (h.5)
   4. Yamanin Bouquet (c.4)
   5. Lilac (m.7)

3. Other Horses to Watch

4. Conclusion

5. Related Articles

1. Race Preview & Betting Angles

Kyoto 2400m Turf (Outer) Course Profile

The Kyoto 2400m starts in front of the main stand and covers just over one full circuit. The course features an incline on the backstretch followed by a long downhill run from the third corner, demanding a strong finishing kick in the long final straight. The winter turf at Kyoto often becomes heavy and taxing, placing a premium on stamina and power. Horses that can maintain a long, sustained run tend to excel here.

Handicap Race Trends

With a mix of proven stakes horses and up-and-coming talent, the weight assignments are key. The main point of comparison will be between established runners likely carrying top weight (like Lilac) and the in-form 4 and 5-year-olds rising through the ranks (like Geltuchtar and Coachellavalley).

Importance of Pre-Race Workouts

As this race is held in the cold of mid-winter, a horse’s fitness level directly impacts its performance. Pay close attention to the final furlong splits in workouts on the Ritto woodchip course (CW) and uphill track, as well as their responsiveness when working in company.

2. Top Contenders: Analysis & Workout Ratings

Analysis is based on recent race performance and pre-race workouts conducted primarily on Thursday, January 8th.

Horse NameSex/AgeStableSireDamsireLast RaceWorkout RatingTime (Last 1F)CommentGeltuchtarc.4Ritto, H. SugiyamaBricks and MortarZenno Rob RoyKikuka Sho (G1), 4thA10.9s (Driven)Fantastic movement for a layoff. Looks ready.Shining Swordh.5Ritto, M. NakauchidaFrankelMonsunShosenkyo S. (3W), 1stB+11.5s (Urged)Expect sharpening in final work, typical for this stable.Submarinah.5Ritto, Y. ShonoSuave RichardBernardiniKyoto Daishoten (G2), 16thA11.1s (Driven)Sharp and energetic, looks to atone for last start.Yamanin Bouquetc.4Ritto, M. MatsunagaKitasan BlackChichicastenangoKikuka Sho, 16thB11.8s (Hard Driven)Solid and steady preparation, though no dramatic improvement.Lilacm.7Miho, S. AizawaOrfevreKing KamehamehaQueen Elizabeth II Cup, 3rdB+11.8s (Canter)Clocked a fast final furlong effortlessly; maintains good form.

Geltuchtar (c.4, Ritto, H. Sugiyama Stable)

• Sire: Bricks and Mortar
• Damsire: Zenno Rob Roy

Analysis:

Showed grit and stamina in his last start, finishing a strong 4th in the Kikuka Sho (G1). His consistency and ability to stay the 3000m distance rank him among the top of this field. Though this is his first race against older horses in a stakes race, his performance in the Kikuka Sho suggests he is a central contender.

Pre-Race Workout Evaluation: A

Worked on the Ritto CW on Jan 8 with jockey Ryusei Sakai.
Time: 82.5 – 66.8 – 51.6 – 35.7 – 10.9 (Driven). He tracked the debutant Lord Stunning and finished on terms, clocking a blistering 10.9s for the final furlong. The comment “Will improve for this work” confirms he is shaking off any rust from the layoff with superb movement. His condition is excellent.

Shining Sword (h.5, Ritto, M. Nakauchida Stable)

• Sire: Frankel
• Dam: Stacelita (by Monsun)

Analysis:

An impeccably bred half-brother to Soul Stirring. He impressively won his last start in the Shosenkyo Stakes (3 Wins Class), splitting horses in the straight for a decisive victory. While lightly raced, he possesses immense potential and could surprise in his stakes debut.

Pre-Race Workout Evaluation: B+

Worked on the Ritto CW on Jan 8 with jockey Makoto Nishitani (Yuga Kawada to ride).
Time: 96.8 – 80.2 – 66.1 – 52.0 – 37.1 – 11.5 (Urged). The overall time is slow, but he finished well with an 11.5s final furlong. The official comment was a reserved “movement is decent,” but this stable is known for sharpening horses in their final workout. A passing grade for a three-month layoff.

Submarina (h.5, Ritto, Y. Shono Stable)

• Sire: Suave Richard
• Damsire: Bernardini

Analysis:

His 16th-place finish in the Kyoto Daishoten (G2) can be disregarded. Jockey Kazuo Yokoyama commented, “When I wanted to make a move, another horse drifted out, blocking my path and forcing me to check.” He never had a chance to run. If he gets a clear trip, a bounce-back is almost certain.

Pre-Race Workout Evaluation: A

Worked on the Ritto CW on Jan 8 with jockey Shota Kato.
Time: 97.2 – 80.5 – 64.7 – 49.7 – 35.6 – 11.1 (Driven). He tracked the debutant Kirios by 1.2 seconds and finished a neck ahead. His final furlong of 11.1s is particularly noteworthy. The comment “Will show improvement” reflects his vibrant, energetic work, suggesting he’s ready to put his last race behind him.

Yamanin Bouquet (c.4, Ritto, M. Matsunaga Stable)

• Sire: Kitasan Black
• Damsire: Chichicastenango

Analysis:

In the Kikuka Sho (16th), he broke well to sit second but became rank and faded around the final turn. The cutback to 2400m should suit him. Like his sire Kitasan Black, he’s a type that uses a long, sustained run. If he can settle into his own rhythm, he is one to reconsider.

Pre-Race Workout Evaluation: B

Worked on the Ritto CW on Jan 8 with an assistant.
Time: 95.3 – 78.8 – 64.8 – 51.2 – 37.3 – 11.8 (Hard Driven at finish). He was pushed hard at the finish line, clocking 11.8s for the last furlong. The comment “Stride is solid” indicates a smooth preparation. While not showing significant improvement, his training has been consistent.

Lilac (m.7, Miho, S. Aizawa Stable)

• Sire: Orfevre
• Damsire: King Kamehameha

Analysis:

Ran a strong race to finish 3rd in last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Cup as the 9th favorite. Her closing style from the rear of the field is well-established, and if the pace sets up for her, she can compete on even terms with the males. At seven years old, she shows no signs of slowing down.

Pre-Race Workout Evaluation: B+

Worked on the Miho Woodchip course on Jan 8 with jockey Ryuto Yokoyama.
Time: 67.6 – 52.3 – 37.7 – 11.8 (In a canter). She tracked a 1-win class horse and passed easily on the inside. The comment “Good extension in the straight” is accurate, as she clocked 11.8s for the final furlong under a hold, indicating she remains in excellent form.

3. Other Horses to Watch

• Coachellavalley (c.4): Won his last start in the Good Luck H. (2 Wins Class) with a brilliant closing run. Jockey C. Demuro praised his “incredible turn of foot.”
• Meiner Chrysola (h.7): Finished 3rd in the Challenge Cup last time out. He is a type that can sustain a long run and should not be underestimated here.

4. Conclusion

Based on the pre-race workouts, Geltuchtar’s condition is outstanding. He posted a near-personal best time with a sharp closing kick, making him the one to beat. Submarina also stands out with an ambitious preparation aimed at a strong comeback.

The final decision should be made after reviewing the final workout reports and the officially announced handicap weights.

※ Please be sure to check the official racecard and odds from the race organizer before placing any wagers.

5. Related Articles

• Nikkei Shinshun Hai 2025 Workout Analysis
• How to Bet the Kyoto 2400m Turf Course
• Kikuka Sho 2025 Pace Projection

ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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