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AI PREDICTIONMUTSUKI STAKES 2026: On January 24, 2026, the Kyoto Racecourse hosts the Mutsuki Stakes. Our AI delves deep into this pivotal race, a preview of the spring mile championships, analyzing pedigrees, course suitability, and training data. We’ve pinpointed Shivers, from the highly motivated Tomomichi stable, as our top pick while also unlocking the potential of challengers like Tagano Elpida.

By AI Racing Analyst | Published January 24, 2026

目次

1. Article Highlights

2. Analysis Index

3. 【CONCLUSION】 AI’s Final Recommendations

4. 【DEEP DIVE】 The AI’s Data Points

   1. ◎ Shivers: The Ironclad Case for a Favorite
   2. ◯ Tagano Elpida: The Challenger with a New Strategy
   3. ▲ Meiner Ticket: The Rider-Horse Connection
   4. △ Other Contenders: Potential Upsets

5. 【SIMULATION】 IF Scenarios: Race Pace Breakdown

   1. Scenario 1: Slow Pace into a Sprint Finish
   2. Scenario 2: Average Pace Stamina Test

6. 【SUMMARY】 Final Thoughts & Deeper Dive

Article Highlights

• ▶AI’s Top Pick: Shivers (◎) is the final conclusion, backed by the Tomomichi stable’s “winning mentality” and strong pedigree data.
• ▶Course is Key: The unique “Yodo slope” on Kyoto’s 1600m turf (outer course) will be a deciding factor.
• ▶Pedigree Power: Progeny of Maurice, Kizuna, and Kitasan Black show a distinct advantage on this course.
• ▶Pace Prediction: A slow pace is likely, making explosive acceleration and stamina in the final stretch crucial for victory.
• ▶Dark Horses: Watch for Cranford leveraging an inside draw and Sefiro, who has excellent course suitability.

Analysis Index

1. AI’s Final Picks

2. Detailed Analysis

   1. ◎ Shivers: The Ironclad Favorite
   2. ◯ Tagano Elpida: The Prime Contender
   3. ▲ Meiner Ticket: The Dark Horse
   4. △ Other Contenders

3. Race Simulation Scenarios

4. Summary & Further Insights

【CONCLUSION】 AI’s Final Recommendations

After multi-faceted data analysis—including pedigree, course suitability, training, and pace prediction—the AI recommends the following picks:

Mark No. Horse Name Jockey ◎ 8 Shivers Yuga Kawada ◯ 10 Tagano Elpida (TBD) ▲ 4 Meiner Ticket Takeshi Yokoyama △ 14 Nihonpiro Kyiv Kanta Taguchi △ 1 Cranford (TBD)

【DEEP DIVE】 The AI’s Data Points

The AI’s conclusion is based on analyzing correlations in data that humans might overlook, assessing the optimal conditions for each horse to reach its maximum potential.

◎ Shivers: The Ironclad Case for a Favorite

Multiple powerful performance indicators converge on Shivers, making it our top recommendation.

• Pedigree Advantage: The sire Maurice crossed with dam’s sire Deep Impact boasts an extremely high rate of finishing in the money on Kyoto’s outer course. This combination of power and explosive speed is unmatched when accelerating down the slope.
• Stable’s Intent: A “◎” comment from assistant trainer Ishibashi of the Tomomichi stable is a historically reliable sign of a horse being primed for a win.
• Jockey Synergy: The partnership with jockey Yuga Kawada is a force to be reckoned with, boasting an astounding 43.5% win rate at the Kyoto course—a combination that data suggests is undeniable.

◯ Tagano Elpida: The Challenger with a New Strategy

Tagano Elpida is rated as the top contender to upset Shivers. Sire Kizuna was the leading sire in 2024 and 2025, and his progeny have an excellent track record at Kyoto.

• Tactical Shift: The stable has announced they will be “racing proactively from a forward position.” In a race predicted to have a slow pace, this aggressive strategy could be highly effective.
• Solid Bloodline: The cross with dam’s sire King Kamehameha adds stability. Relatives in the pedigree include power types, indicating adaptability to the demanding winter track conditions.

▲ Meiner Ticket: The Rider-Horse Connection

Despite being a class-jumper, Meiner Ticket is highly regarded. Sire Danon Ballade’s lineage is known for excelling on unique courses like Kyoto.

• Horse-Jockey Mastery: Jockey Takeshi Yokoyama commented, “He runs as intended if he can follow the rail,” showing complete control over the horse’s temperament. The ability to maintain focus down Kyoto’s long straight is a significant advantage.
• Peak Condition: The horse showed sharp movement in its final workout, with trainer Miyata affirming, “His condition remains excellent.”

△ Other Contenders: Potential Upsets

Beyond the favorites, several horses could place high if conditions are right.

• Nihonpiro Kyiv: His weapon is a “non-stop speed” inherited from sire Kitasan Black. The stable is confident that “Kyoto, without a final uphill climb, is his best course.” If he settles well, he has the ability to sweep past the field from the outside.
• Cranford: In his last race, he faced a critical block in the final stretch. As a progeny of Bricks and Mortar, his turf suitability is high. If he can conserve energy by taking the shortest route from the innermost gate, he has the potential to outperform his popularity.

【SIMULATION】 IF Scenarios: Race Pace Breakdown

Here’s a simulation of the most likely race pace and which horses would benefit.

Scenario 1: Slow Pace into a Sprint Finish

High Probability

With no clear front-runner, a slow pace with the first 800m around 48 seconds is expected. Positioning over the third-corner slope will be critical, leading to a sprint finish. This favors:

• Explosive Speed: Shivers, Tagano Elpida.
• Inside Track Advantage: Cranford.

Scenario 2: Average Pace Stamina Test

Low Probability

If multiple horses vie for the lead and the pace quickens, the race will become a test of stamina. This scenario would favor horses that can maintain a strong late kick.

• High Stamina: Nihonpiro Kyiv.
• Power Runners: Tagano Elpida.

【SUMMARY】 Final Thoughts & Deeper Dive

According to the AI’s analysis, ◎ Shivers is the horse closest to victory in the 2026 Mutsuki Stakes. The trifecta of pedigree, stable, and jockey is perfectly aligned, and the Kyoto outer course is an ideal stage. However, contenders like Tagano Elpida and Meiner Ticket are certainly capable, and an upset is possible depending on the race’s flow. We recommend using this analysis as a foundation, while also considering the horses’ conditions on race day, to build your final ticket.

For more detailed video simulations, check out our YouTube channel.

Yanashi-Shacho’s Generative Racing Channel on YouTube

Also, be sure to utilize the detailed analysis from professional forecasters for last-minute information gathering before the race.

ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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