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Categories: レース予想中央競馬予想（JRA）
ギリーズボール・サンアントワーヌらが激突！フェアリーステークス2026 追い切り徹底分析と予想ポイント
Analysis by AI: Fairy Stakes (GIII) – January 11, 2026
Prepare for an exhilarating day of racing! This in-depth analysis breaks down the key handicapping factors for the 42nd Fairy Stakes (GIII), scheduled to take place at Nakayama Racecourse on January 11, 2026. As a critical stepping stone on the road to the prestigious Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), this race promises to showcase some of Japan’s most promising three-year-old fillies. Our expert AI thoroughly evaluates the top contenders, focusing on their latest workout performances and previous race results to provide you with the sharpest insights for your horse racing predictions.
目次
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Article Highlights: Fairy Stakes 2026
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Table of Contents
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Key Handicapping Factors for the Fairy Stakes (GIII)
- Workout Performance and Readiness
- Nakayama Mile Aptitude
- Previous Race Performance
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Top Contenders: In-Depth Analysis
- Gillies Ball
- San Antoine
- Pied du Lapin
- Black Chalice
- Valis Marineris
- Viscontessa
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Related Articles
Article Highlights: Fairy Stakes 2026
- The Fairy Stakes (GIII) serves as a crucial preparatory race for the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas).
- The challenging Nakayama Turf 1600m (Outer course) and the fillies’ relatively young careers are key handicapping factors.
- Critical evaluation points include comprehensive workout performance, overall readiness, specific Nakayama Mile aptitude, and previous race performances.
- An in-depth analysis of top contenders: Gillies Ball, San Antoine, Pied du Lapin, Black Chalice, Valis Marineris, and Viscontessa.
Table of Contents
Key Handicapping Factors for the Fairy Stakes (GIII)
The Fairy Stakes is a highly anticipated Grade III race exclusively for three-year-old fillies, contested over Nakayama’s challenging Turf 1600m (Outer course). Given the tricky track layout and the contestants’ relatively young careers, impeccable conditioning and proven course suitability will be crucial determinants of success. Let’s delve into the specific aspects our AI considers for this competitive event, offering valuable horse racing tips.
Workout Performance and Readiness
Given that this race takes place early in the new year, often following a break over the holiday season, the smooth and consistent execution of pre-race workouts (Oikiri) becomes paramount. Our AI meticulously assesses how each filly has maintained her fitness and sharpness through the variable training schedule, as horses showing strong, uninterrupted preparation will hold a significant advantage in this important GIII race.
Nakayama Mile Aptitude
The Nakayama Turf 1600m requires a specific blend of speed, stamina, and tactical ability due to its unique configuration. Horses explicitly praised by their jockeys for their mile suitability, such as Gillies Ball (where her jockey stated, “the mile is perfect for her”), or those with strong past performances and proven adaptability on the challenging Nakayama Racecourse, warrant significant upgrades in their evaluation.
Previous Race Performance
Analyzing prior race performances allows our AI to identify each filly’s unique strengths and weaknesses. We meticulously compare factors like the raw power to dominate on softer tracks, as demonstrated by Valis Marineris’s effortless victory on a yielding surface, or the sustained finishing drive and stamina exemplified by Viscontessa, who showed a long, powerful kick in her last win. Understanding these individual weapons is key to forecasting success in this competitive field of Thoroughbreds.
Top Contenders: In-Depth Analysis
Horse Name Sire Dam’s Sire Trainer (Stable) Jockey Pedigree & Background Summary Previous Race Performance Workout Assessment Gillies Ball Epiphaneia Fuji Kiseki Ritto・Tetsuka Hisa C. Lemaire Boasts a Sunday Silence cross, combining instant acceleration with sustained stamina. 9th September Nakayama Newcomer Race (Turf 1600m): Overcame interference to win with a strong late surge. After 3.5 months layoff, “well-conditioned” following a solid workout on Miho Sakaro (uphill woodchip course). San Antoine Drefon Harbinger Miho・Shikato Yu Y. Tosaki Her dam’s lineage includes Sunday Silence. October Tokyo 2-year-old Allowance Race (Turf 1400m): Prevailed in a fierce closing duel. Showed light footwork on Miho W Course, slightly behind stablemate but “no concerns about being behind.” Pied du Lapin Epiphaneia Lord Kanaloa Miho・Chiba K. Ogino Pedigree built for speed and precocity. November Tokyo 2-year-old Maiden Race (Turf 1600m): Scored a decisive victory. “Good impression” with an effortless workout on Miho W Course. Black Chalice Kitasan Black To the World Ritto・Take Y. A. Tsumura Well-bred with Silver Lane in her dam’s pedigree. Fantasy Stakes (GIII): Finished a commendable 4th despite losing a shoe. Led a 1-win class older horse on Ritto CW course; “not driven to full extent” but looked sprightly. Valis Marineris Admire Mars Dubawi Miho・Nakatate Y. Yokoyama Features the world-renowned bloodline of Dubawi. October Tokyo Newcomer Race (Turf 1800m): Won convincingly on slightly soft ground without issue. “Brisk movement” on Miho Sakaro, showing smooth preparation for the race. Viscontessa Silver State Orfevre Ritto・Matsunaga M. Y. Ishikawa Hails from a vibrant family with multiple stakes winners. November Kyoto Maiden Race (Turf 1800m): Demonstrated sustained speed to win after a long drive. “Ready despite a break” after a solid workout on Ritto Sakaro, indicating readiness for return.
Gillies Ball
- Pedigree & Background: By Epiphaneia out of a Fuji Kiseki mare, Floor Craft. This pedigree boasts a Sunday Silence cross, providing a potent combination of instant acceleration and sustained stamina, ideal for top-level competition in the Fairy Stakes.
- Previous Race Analysis: In her debut on September 9th in a Nakayama Newcomer Race (Turf 1600m), Gillies Ball demonstrated remarkable resilience. Despite being interfered with shortly after the start, she settled well in mid-pack on the outside. In the straight, she unleashed a powerful burst of speed to secure a decisive victory. Jockey Christophe Lemaire offered high praise, stating, “the mile is perfect for her.”
- Interim Adjustment & Workout Assessment: Returning from a 3.5-month layoff, Gillies Ball showcased her readiness on January 8th at Miho Sakaro (uphill woodchip course). She clocked an effortless 54.1-39.4-25.1-12.0 (last 4F-3F-2F-1F, hand-ridden). She finished even with her stablemate Dia Diamond (3-year-old, 1 win) whom she led by 0.3 seconds. The assessment notes “well-conditioned,” indicating she is rounding into form smoothly for her GIII challenge.
San Antoine
- Pedigree & Background: Sired by Drefon, her dam Santille is by Harbinger. Her female line includes the influential blood of Sunday Silence, suggesting a strong blend of speed and staying power that could be potent over the Nakayama mile.
- Previous Race Analysis: San Antoine’s run in the October Tokyo 2-year-old Allowance Race (Turf 1400m) was impressive. Despite showing some slight stiffness in her hindquarters, which led to a rear-of-the-field start, she effortlessly navigated the far outside in the final turn. She then unleashed a powerful finish to win a gripping closing duel. Jockey Yutaka Tosaki commented, “she really burst into action at the end.”
- Interim Adjustment & Workout Assessment: On January 8th, San Antoine worked on the Miho W Course, recording times of 83.7-68.0-53.2-38.3-12.0. While she was slightly behind her stablemate Sanserite after being urged in the final stages, her overall movement was light and fluent. The assessment confidently states, “no concerns about being behind,” suggesting she is fit and prepared for the Fairy Stakes.
Pied du Lapin
- Pedigree & Background: By Epiphaneia out of Troyes Etoiles, a mare by Lord Kanaloa. This is a pedigree explicitly designed for speed and precocity, making her well-suited for a mile contest and potentially a contender in this GIII event.
- Previous Race Analysis: Pied du Lapin secured a victory in the November Tokyo 2-year-old Maiden Race (Turf 1600m). Her ride demonstrated improved tractability compared to her debut, and while she still showed some eagerness, jockey Kyosuke Ogino expressed optimism, saying, “I’m looking forward to her performances in higher classes.”
- Interim Adjustment & Workout Assessment: An effortless workout on January 8th on the Miho W Course saw her clock 83.7-67.3-52.4-38.2-12.2 (last 5F-4F-3F-2F-1F, hand-ridden). The short assessment, “good impression,” strongly suggests she is in excellent condition and showing positive signs ahead of the Fairy Stakes.
Black Chalice
- Pedigree & Background: Sired by Kitasan Black, her dam Gold Chalice is by To the World. This well-bred filly also features the notable blood of Silver Lane in her maternal line, indicating potential for both speed and stamina over the Nakayama turf.
- Previous Race Analysis: Black Chalice displayed remarkable courage in the Fantasy Stakes (GIII), finishing a commendable 4th despite the significant handicap of losing a shoe during the race. She impressively carved a path on the innermost rail, even briefly leading, showcasing her fighting spirit and talent against strong competition.
- Interim Adjustment & Workout Assessment: On January 7th, trainer Yukihiko Take rode Black Chalice on the Ritto CW Course, where she recorded 54.7-38.8-12.0 (last 4F-3F-1F, hand-ridden). She successfully worked past an older horse from the 1-win class. While the assessment noted “not driven to full extent,” her light and sprightly movement was evident, suggesting ample fitness without being over-taxed for the Fairy Stakes.
Valis Marineris
- Pedigree & Background: By Admire Mars out of Electra Lane, a mare by Dubawi. This pedigree is a global powerhouse, including the renowned bloodline of Dubawi, promising top-tier talent and versatility, making her a formidable contender in the Fairy Stakes.
- Previous Race Analysis: Valis Marineris made a striking debut in the October Tokyo Newcomer Race (Turf 1800m), securing a convincing victory. Crucially, she handled slightly soft ground with absolute ease, demonstrating significant power and adaptability. Jockey Takeshi Yokoyama lauded her, stating, “she possesses great ability and potential,” hinting at her boundless talent.
- Interim Adjustment & Workout Assessment: Her workout on January 7th at Miho Sakaro saw her clock an effortless 53.2-38.7-25.1-12.0 (last 4F-3F-2F-1F, hand-ridden). The evaluation, “brisk movement,” confirms that she is progressing smoothly and is well-prepared for the demands of the upcoming Fairy Stakes.
Viscontessa
- Pedigree & Background: By Silver State out of Marquesa, a mare by Orfevre. She hails from a vibrant and successful family that boasts multiple stakes winners, underlining her strong genetic potential for this GIII race.
- Previous Race Analysis: In the November Kyoto Maiden Race (Turf 1800m), Viscontessa showcased impressive staying power. She moved up strongly from a slow pace and maintained a long, powerful drive to secure a well-deserved victory. While jockey C. Demuro’s astute judgment played a role, the filly unequivocally proved her own formidable sustained speed and endurance.
- Interim Adjustment & Workout Assessment: Viscontessa worked on January 7th at Ritto Sakaro, recording an effortless 54.1-39.6-26.1-13.1 (last 4F-3F-2F-1F, hand-ridden). The assessment, “ready despite a break,” suggests that even after a layoff, she has been brought back to a condition where she can perform strongly, indicating excellent management and underlying fitness for the Fairy Stakes.
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ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)
データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。
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