【日経新春杯2026】ゲルチュタール、シャイニングソード、サブマリーナなど有力馬の一週前追い切り評価と展望

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2026.01.132026.02.20

Published: January 12, 2026

Anticipation is building for the 73rd Nikkei Shinshun Hai (GII, Turf 2400m), set to take place on Sunday, January 18, 2026, at Kyoto Racecourse. This analysis provides an in-depth look at the pre-race workouts of key contenders, including Geltschatar, who finished an impressive 4th in the Kikuka Sho, and the well-bred Shining Sword. We’ll delve into the trends of this prestigious handicap race, examine the unique characteristics of the Kyoto course, and assess the crucial form of horses in the challenging winter conditions. Prepare for a thorough breakdown of a pivotal race that often shapes the spring G1 season.

目次

1. Key Highlights of This Analysis

2. Table of Contents

3. 73rd Nikkei Shinshun Hai: Race Outlook and Betting Pointers

   1. Kyoto Turf 2400m (Outer Course) Characteristics
   2. Trends in Handicap Races
   3. The Critical Importance of Pre-Race Workouts

4. Analysis of Key Entrants and Pre-Race Workout Evaluations

   1. Geltschatar (C4・Ritto, Haru Sugiyama Stables)

      1. 【Analysis】
      2. 【Pre-Race Workout Rating: A】

   2. Shining Sword (C5・Ritto, Nakaida Stables)

      1. 【Analysis】
      2. 【Pre-Race Workout Rating: B+】

   3. Submarina (C5・Ritto, Shono Stables)

      1. 【Analysis】
      2. 【Pre-Race Workout Rating: A】

   4. Yamanin Bouquet (C4・Ritto, Kan Matshunaga Stables)

      1. 【Analysis】
      2. 【Pre-Race Workout Rating: B】

   5. Lilac (F7・Miho, Aizawa Stables)

      1. 【Analysis】
      2. 【Pre-Race Workout Rating: B+】

5. Other Noteworthy Contenders

6. Summary

7. Related Articles

8. 関連ガイド

Key Highlights of This Analysis

• The Nikkei Shinshun Hai is a traditional handicap GII race contested over Kyoto’s Turf 2400m (Outer Course).
• Winter racing at Kyoto often results in a demanding track, favoring horses with exceptional stamina and power.
• Geltschatar, boasting a 4th place finish in the Kikuka Sho, received an “A” rating for his pre-race workout, indicating peak condition.
• Shining Sword and Submarina are also highly anticipated contenders expected to make a strong comeback.
• The final workout performance and the official handicap weights will be crucial factors determining the ultimate race outcome.

Table of Contents

1. 73rd Nikkei Shinshun Hai: Race Outlook and Betting Pointers

   1. Kyoto Turf 2400m (Outer Course) Characteristics
   2. Trends in Handicap Races
   3. The Critical Importance of Pre-Race Workouts

2. Analysis of Key Entrants and Pre-Race Workout Evaluations

   1. Geltschatar (C4・Ritto, Haru Sugiyama Stables)
   2. Shining Sword (C5・Ritto, Nakaida Stables)
   3. Submarina (C5・Ritto, Shono Stables)
   4. Yamanin Bouquet (C4・Ritto, Kan Matshunaga Stables)
   5. Lilac (F7・Miho, Aizawa Stables)

3. Other Noteworthy Contenders

4. Summary

5. Related Articles

73rd Nikkei Shinshun Hai: Race Outlook and Betting Pointers

Kyoto Turf 2400m (Outer Course) Characteristics

The Kyoto Turf 2400m (Outer Course) begins in front of the stands and covers slightly more than one full circuit. Horses ascend a hill on the backstretch, then descend through the 3rd corner, leading into a long home stretch where a burst of speed is paramount. In winter, the Kyoto track often becomes demanding, emphasizing the importance of both stamina and power in a horse’s pedigree. Look for contenders capable of unleashing a “long, sustained acceleration” as they tend to perform exceptionally well here.

Trends in Handicap Races

As a handicap race, the Nikkei Shinshun Hai features a diverse field of proven veterans and promising up-and-comers, making the weight differential a critical factor. This year, the focus will be on comparing the top-weighted seasoned runners (such as Lilac) with the momentum-driven 4 and 5-year-olds (like Geltschatar and Coachella Valley) who have steadily climbed through allowance races.

The Critical Importance of Pre-Race Workouts

Held in the depths of winter, the physical condition and readiness of each horse directly impact their performance. Special attention should be paid to the “last furlong acceleration” in workouts, particularly at Ritto’s CW (woodchip) course or the坂路 (dirt training hill), and their responsiveness in paired workouts. These insights are invaluable for assessing their readiness for race day.

Analysis of Key Entrants and Pre-Race Workout Evaluations

Here, we analyze the recent race performances and the crucial pre-race workout movements, primarily conducted around January 8th (Thursday).

Horse NameSex/AgeStablesSireDam’s SirePrevious RacePre-Race Workout RatingTime (Last 1F)Brief CommentGeltschatarC4Ritto Haru SugiyamaBricks and MortarZenno Rob RoyKikuka Sho 4th (GI)A10.9s (Hard Ridden)Magnificent form, showing no signs of a layoff; race readiness is excellent.Shining SwordC5Ritto NakaidaFrankelMonsunShosenkyo S victory (3 win class)B+11.5s (Slightly Hard)True to Nakaida stables, expect further refinement in the final workout.SubmarinaC5Ritto ShonoSuave RichardBernardiniKyoto Daishoten 16th (GII)A11.1s (Hard Ridden)Vigorous movements, eager to redeem himself after the last race.Yamanin BouquetC4Ritto Kan MatsunagaKitasan BlackChichicastenangoKikuka Sho 16thB11.8s (Hard near post)Solid adjustment, though significant improvement is not strongly emphasized.LilacF7Miho AizawaOrfevreKing KamehamehaQueen Elizabeth II Cup 3rdB+11.8s (Hands & Heels)Marked 11.8s in the last furlong with minimal effort, maintaining excellent form.

Geltschatar (C4・Ritto, Haru Sugiyama Stables)

• Sire: Bricks and Mortar
• Dam’s Sire: Zenno Rob Roy

【Analysis】

In his previous race, the Kikuka Sho (GI), Geltschatar showcased incredible stamina, holding his ground from mid-pack to finish a commendable 4th over a grueling 3000m. His consistent performance and endurance rank among the best in this field. While this marks his first foray into a graded race against older horses, his Kikuka Sho effort positions him as a strong central contender here.

【Pre-Race Workout Rating: A】

On January 8th, Geltschatar was put through his paces on the Ritto CW course with jockey Ryusei Sakai aboard.

Time: 82.5 – 66.8 – 51.6 – 35.7 – 10.9 (Hard Ridden) He chased a newcomer (Lord Stunning), matching him from the inside in the final strides. The sharp 10.9-second last furlong demonstrates remarkable acceleration. As commented, “improved significantly with this workout,” he shows magnificent form, belying any rust from the layoff, and is perfectly poised for the race.

Shining Sword (C5・Ritto, Nakaida Stables)

• Sire: Frankel
• Dam: Stacelita (Dam’s Sire Monsun)

【Analysis】

A half-brother to the illustrious Soul Stirring, Shining Sword is a horse of exceptional pedigree. In his last outing, the Shosenkyo S (3 win class), he surged between the two front-runners in the stretch to claim a decisive victory. Despite a relatively short career, he possesses immense untapped potential, making him a dark horse capable of a breakout performance in his graded race debut.

【Pre-Race Workout Rating: B+】

On January 8th, jockey Makoto Nishitani rode Shining Sword on the Ritto CW course (Jockey Yuga Kawada is scheduled for the race).

Time: 96.8 – 80.2 – 66.1 – 52.0 – 37.1 – 11.5 (Slightly Hard) While his overall time was moderate, he closed with a respectable 11.5 seconds. The comment “movement satisfactory” is modest, but knowing Nakaida stables, he is likely to be further sharpened and refined in the final workout. This is a commendable effort for a horse returning from a three-month layoff.

Submarina (C5・Ritto, Shono Stables)

• Sire: Suave Richard
• Dam’s Sire: Bernardini

【Analysis】

Submarina’s 16th place finish in his last race, the Kyoto Daishoten (GII), can be largely disregarded. Jockey Kazuo Yokoyama commented, “a horse swelling out caused interference where I wanted to accelerate, forcing me to check,” indicating a completely unsatisfactory run. With a clear run, a strong comeback is highly anticipated and almost inevitable.

【Pre-Race Workout Rating: A】

On January 8th, jockey Shota Kato rode Submarina on the Ritto CW course.

Time: 97.2 – 80.5 – 64.7 – 49.7 – 35.6 – 11.1 (Hard Ridden) He chased a newcomer (Kirios) by 1.2 seconds, eventually taking a neck lead. His last furlong acceleration of 11.1 seconds is particularly noteworthy. The comment “improved significantly with this workout” confirms a vigorous and spirited movement, eager to redeem himself after his previous outing.

Yamanin Bouquet (C4・Ritto, Kan Matshunaga Stables)

• Sire: Kitasan Black
• Dam’s Sire: Chichicastenango

【Analysis】

In the Kikuka Sho (16th), Yamanin Bouquet broke well and settled in second but faded in the 3rd to 4th corners due to pulling. This race, at the shorter 2400m distance, could suit him better. Like his sire, Kitasan Black, he is inherently a horse that can sustain a long, powerful run. If he can maintain his own rhythm, he is certainly worth re-evaluating.

【Pre-Race Workout Rating: B】

On January 8th, an assistant rode Yamanin Bouquet on the Ritto CW course.

Time: 95.3 – 78.8 – 64.8 – 51.2 – 37.3 – 11.8 (Hard Ridden near post) He was urged strongly towards the finish, clocking 11.8 seconds for the last furlong. The comment “sure-footed” indicates steady progress in his preparation. While a significant leap in form isn’t strongly emphasized, he has been consistently adjusted.

Lilac (F7・Miho, Aizawa Stables)

• Sire: Orfevre
• Dam’s Sire: King Kamehameha

【Analysis】

Despite being a 9th favorite, Lilac delivered a stunning 3rd place finish in last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Cup. Her characteristic style of waiting in the rear and then unleashing a powerful outside surge is well-honed, allowing her to compete effectively even against male counterparts when the pace suits. Now seven years old, she shows absolutely no signs of slowing down.

【Pre-Race Workout Rating: B+】

On January 8th, jockey Ryuto Yokoyama rode Lilac on the Miho W course.

Time: 67.6 – 52.3 – 37.7 – 11.8 (Hands & Heels) She effortlessly tracked and then easily passed an older horse from the 1-win class on the inside. As the evaluation “good stretch acceleration” suggests, she marked 11.8 seconds for the last furlong with minimal effort, clearly maintaining her excellent form.

Other Noteworthy Contenders

• Coachella Valley (C4): Demonstrated a brilliant late surge to win the Good Luck H (2 win class) in his last start. Jockey Christophe Demuro praised his “incredible burst of speed.”
• Meiner Chrisola (C7): Finished a strong 3rd in the Challenge Cup. Known for his ability to sustain a long run, he should not be underestimated in this race.

Summary

As of the one-week pre-race workout stage, Geltschatar’s performance stands out. His ability to hit close to his personal best times, combined with a strong finish, indicates he’s in prime condition. Submarina also showed renewed vigor, hinting at a strong rebound from his last disappointing outing. Shining Sword and Lilac also demonstrated satisfactory to good form, suggesting they are ready to contend. With the demanding winter Kyoto track and the complexities of a handicap race, the final adjustments in the coming days, along with the official weight announcements, will be crucial. Keep a close eye on these factors to make your ultimate predictions for the 73rd Nikkei Shinshun Hai!

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