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THE 70TH ARIMA KINEN (GI) PREDICTIONS：MEISHO TABARU vs REGALEIRA

Can Yutaka Take lead wire-to-wire, or will Lemaire’s explosive finish decide the Grand Prix?

December 28, 2025

RACE PREVIEW

On December 28, 2025, the 70th Arima Kinen (GI) will unfold at Nakayama Racecourse. Meisho Tabaru, winner of the Takarazuka Kinen, aims for a Grand Prix double with legendary jockey Yutaka Take. As the key to the race’s pace, we favor his chances to leverage Nakayama’s short straight and dominate from the front. This in-depth analysis breaks down the key race points, evaluating top contenders like the reigning queen Regaleira and Derby winner Danon Decile.

Top Pick: Meisho Tabaru

The front-runner is poised for a tactical advantage, making him our favored choice.

Primary Challenger: Regaleira

A two-time Queen Elizabeth II Cup winner, she poses the most significant threat.

Dark Horses

Derby winner Danon Decile and Justin Palace (in his final race) are strong contenders.

Peak Condition

Meisho Tabaru’s strong Tenno Sho (Autumn) performance and ‘A’ grade workout confirm his readiness.

目次

1. 1. Top Pick: Meisho Tabaru
   2. Primary Challenger: Regaleira
   3. Dark Horses
   4. Peak Condition

2. Our Official Selections

3. Top Pick Analysis: MEISHO TABARU (◎)

   1. Favorable Pace & Nakayama Course Affinity
   2. A “Productive Loss” in the Tenno Sho (Autumn)
   3. Workout Grade “A”: Peak Condition

4. Contender Analysis

   1. 5. Regaleira
   2. 3. Justin Palace
   3. 9. Danon Decile

5. Final Verdict & Betting Strategy

Our Official Selections

◎ (Top Pick)6. Meisho Tabaru (Y. Take)○ (Strong)5. Regaleira (C. Lemaire)▲ (Contender)3. Justin Palace (T. Danno)☆ (Dark Horse)9. Danon Decile (K. Tosaki)△ (Watch)4. Museum Mile (C. Demuro)△ (Watch)16. Tastiera (K. Matsuyama)

Top Pick Analysis: MEISHO TABARU (◎)

(Jockey: Yutaka Take / Trainer: Morita Ishibashi / Sire: Gold Ship / Dam’s Sire: French Deputy)

Favorable Pace & Nakayama Course Affinity

Looking at the field, there are no other strong front-runners, suggesting Meisho Tabaru can set his own pace. The Nakayama 2500m turf course, with its early curve and short final straight, typically favors horses that run on or near the lead. A horse that can control the race from the front is a major threat here. Expectations are high for a father-son victory, as his sire Gold Ship also excelled on this stage.

A “Productive Loss” in the Tenno Sho (Autumn)

While he finished 6th in his previous start, the Tenno Sho (Autumn), it was a high-speed 2000m race where he was only 0.2 seconds behind the winner. His camp noted it was a “valuable experience for the Arima Kinen,” adding that “he remained patient even at a slower pace.” This defeat can be seen as a stepping stone for the stamina-demanding Arima Kinen. As a proven Grade 1 winner who dominated from the front in the Takarazuka Kinen, a second GI title is well within reach if he can execute his race plan.

Workout Grade “A”: Peak Condition

In his final workout on the Ritto woodchip course, he clocked an excellent time of [85.8-68.5-53.0-37.4-11.3]. Evaluators commented, “He showed sharp acceleration and stretched out beautifully, indicating he is in perfect physical and mental shape.” Now in his prime, with both spirit and stamina at their peak, expect him to show tenacious determination to the finish line.

Contender Analysis

○

5. Regaleira

(Jockey: C. Lemaire / Trainer: Tetsuya Kimura / Workout: A)

One of the top fillies in training, entering this race after winning the Queen Elizabeth II Cup for the second consecutive year. Her final workout at the Miho woodchip course was spectacular, earning a clear “A” grade. While she has some issues at the starting gate, the expert handling of jockey Christophe Lemaire and her powerful late kick make her the primary threat to catch Meisho Tabaru.

▲

3. Justin Palace

(Jockey: T. Danno / Trainer: Haruki Sugiyama / Workout: B)

A proven performer in what will be his retirement race. He has run well in the Arima Kinen before, proving his affinity for the course. Drawing a favorable inside post (Gate 3) is another advantage. If he can save ground throughout the race, he has a strong chance to surge through on the rail in the final stretch. His team’s determination to “win one more title” should not be underestimated.

☆

9. Danon Decile

(Jockey: K. Tosaki / Trainer: Shogo Yasuda / Workout: A)

This year’s Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) winner holds very high ratings in AI predictions and data analysis (e.g., 57.8% in-the-money probability). His preparation, coming off a 3rd place finish in the Japan Cup, is ideal, and he is reportedly in even better physical condition than for his last race. As one of the top horses of his generation, he possesses the talent to overtake the entire field.

Final Verdict & Betting Strategy

We will build our wagers around our top pick, Meisho Tabaru, holding the lead to the finish. In addition to a Win/Place bet, we recommend Quinella and Trio combinations with strong contenders Regaleira and Danon Decile.

Recommended Wager Structure

• **Win/Place:**6
• **Quinella/Wide:**6 – 5, 3, 9
• **Trio (Box):**6 – (3, 5, 9) – (3, 4, 5, 9, 16)

For more detailed final conclusions and betting strategies from professional handicappers, please visit the link below.View Final Arima Kinen 2025 Predictions on netkeiba.com

ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

Next December 28, 2025:AI PREDICTIONS: RED REGALIA & KRAUTROCK HEADLINE MAIDEN RACES »

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