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Grade 1 Steeplechase

Nakayama Daishogai 2025

An in-depth analysis and prediction for Japan’s ultimate test of steeplechase champions.

Ecole Duel’s Quest

The reigning champion aims for a historic spring-autumn G1 double victory.

Top Challengers

Nebby Im’s stamina and June Velocity’s speed pose the biggest threats.

Course Demands

The grueling 4100m course with its massive obstacles favors European stamina.

Bloodline is Key

Roberto and Sadler’s Wells lines are historically dominant on this track.

目次

1. 1. Ecole Duel’s Quest
   2. Top Challengers
   3. Course Demands
   4. Bloodline is Key

2. The “Hellscape”: Nakayama 4100m

   1. Defining Obstacles

      1. Great Steeple
      2. Great Hedge

   2. Course Characteristics

      1. The “Banquet”
      2. Winter Turf

3. Top Contenders

   1. Ecole Duel
   2. Nebby Im
   3. June Velocity
   4. Feelen Berg

4. Field Analysis: All Runners

   1. 1. Nebby Im (○)
      2. Tamamo Ace
      3. Peter Site (△)
      4. Ecole Duel (◎)
      5. Tangent Arc
      6. June Velocity (▲)
      7. Feelen Berg (△)
      8. Alde Duomo
      9. Platinum Dream (△)
      10. Meisho Atsuita

Winning DNA

1. 1. Roberto Lineage
   2. European Stamina
   3. Stay Gold Lineage

Final Workouts

Race Development Simulation

1. Early to Mid-Race
2. Crucial Stage: The Great Hedge
3. Final Straight

Final Prediction & Strategy

The “Hellscape”: Nakayama 4100m

A course that demands more than just speed—it requires courage, technique, and immense stamina.

Defining Obstacles

Great Steeple

Height 160cm, Width 205cm. A test of trust between horse and rider, requiring a perfect takeoff.

Great Hedge

Height 160cm, Width 240cm. The ultimate challenge, encountered when fatigue sets in, demanding flawless form.

Course Characteristics

The “Banquet”

Sharp undulations drain stamina and disrupt rhythm, punishing any wasted energy.

Winter Turf

Firm, worn turf in late December demands raw power, favoring horses with robust, European bloodlines.

Top Contenders

A deep dive into the champions vying for the crown.

The Undisputed Champion

Ecole Duel

Colt, 6 y/o

Pedigree: Kitasan Black / Giant’s Causeway

Trainer: Koki Iwato

Analysis: Poised for a consecutive spring-autumn victory. His pedigree combines stamina (Kitasan Black) and toughness (Giant’s Causeway), ideal for this course. A record-breaking win in the spring Grand Jump and flawless training sessions, including a final workout described as “perfect,” make him the horse to beat. His mental growth and established partnership with jockey Taro Kusano are significant assets.The Stamina Challenger

Nebby Im

Colt, 7 y/o

Pedigree: Kizuna / Singspiel

With immense stamina from his Sadler’s Wells lineage, the 4100m distance is his ideal battleground. Finished second to the champion in spring and is a proven course performer. Could apply early pressure and force an upset.The Speed Specialist

June Velocity

Colt, 7 y/o

Pedigree: Road to the Crown / Symboli Kris S

Known for his speed and jumping skill, he defeated Ecole Duel in their last encounter. His Roberto lineage provides stamina, but adapting his speed-based style to Nakayama’s grueling course is the main challenge. In peak form.The Rising Specialist

Feelen Berg

Colt, 5 y/o

Pedigree: Eishin Flash / Matsuri Da Gosh

The youngest contender and a Nakayama specialist. His bloodline is perfect for this course’s unique challenges. A sharp final workout and improving form make him a serious threat for a podium finish.

Field Analysis: All Runners

Evaluating the potential of every horse in the race.

1

Nebby Im (○)

Strong stamina, inside draw advantage.

2

Tamamo Ace

Jumping skill is an asset.

3

Peter Site (△)

May hold on if he sets the pace.

4

Ecole Duel (◎)

The favorite with no weaknesses.

5

Tangent Arc

Needs a favorable race development.

6

June Velocity (▲)

Top speed, distance is the question.

7

Feelen Berg (△)

Strong contender at Nakayama.

8

Alde Duomo

Stamina may compensate for inexperience.

9

Platinum Dream (△)

Legendary jockey is a key factor.

10

Meisho Atsuita

Tough track conditions will benefit.

Winning DNA

Bloodline trends that dominate the Daishogai.

Roberto Lineage

June Velocity, Platinum Dream, Peter Site

European Stamina

Nebby Im, Tamamo Ace

Stay Gold Lineage

Ecole Duel, Alde Duomo, Meisho Atsuita

Final Workouts

Comparing the “winning aura” from training.

#Horse NameEvaluationAnalysis4Ecole DuelPerfectMarked good time easily. Peak condition.1Nebby ImThoroughSufficient load. Ready for race day.6June VelocityGoodBody tightened, sharp movement.7Feelen BergImprovingSharp finish of 11.5s. Shows winning intent.

Race Development Simulation

How the four-minute drama might unfold on the track.

Early to Mid-Race

Peter Site leads, with Nebby Im and June Velocity close behind. Ecole Duel settles mid-pack, conserving energy and focusing on clean jumps over the Great Steeple.

Crucial Stage: The Great Hedge

The race intensifies. Stamina powerhouses Nebby Im and Ecole Duel begin their advance, challenging the leaders. This is the make-or-break moment for June Velocity’s stamina.

Final Straight

With no jumps left, it’s a flat-out sprint to the finish. Ecole Duel, having conserved energy, unleashes a powerful finish to claim victory, with Nebby Im and a charging Feelen Berg battling for the podium.

Final Prediction & Strategy

Ecole Duel’s superiority in pedigree, form, and training makes him the overwhelming favorite. The main battle will be for the remaining podium spots, where stamina and course suitability will be the deciding factors.

FAVORITE (◎)

4 Ecole Duel

CONTENDER (○)

1 Nebby Im

DARK HORSE (▲)

6 June Velocity

THIRD CHOICE (△)

7 Feelen Berg, 3 Peter Site, 9 Platinum Dream

ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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