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Categories: G1レース特集レース予想中央競馬予想（JRA）

2025年 ターコイズステークス 徹底分析

Analysis by AI

The quest for the Nakayama Mile Queen! This filly-only handicap race promises thrilling competition. We’ve thoroughly analyzed the bloodlines, course suitability, and the latest workout information to bring you a comprehensive preview.

目次

  1. Race Overview

    1. Race Name
    2. Date
    3. Racecourse
    4. Distance
    5. Race Type

  2. 1. Nakayama Turf 1600m: Course Characteristics and Bloodline Trends

    1. Course Demands: Physical Aptitude and Unique Challenges

    2. Track Bias and Bloodline Tendencies: Lord Kanaloa’s Reign

    3. Key Sire Performance on Nakayama Turf 1600m

      1. Lord Kanaloa
      2. Silver State
      3. Epiphaneia
      4. Kizuna
      5. Daiwa Major

  3. 2. Comprehensive Analysis of All Expected Runners

    1. Bond Girl: Top Contender
    2. Cerviatt: Strong Challenger
    3. Umbrail: Dark Horse Candidate
    4. Vip Daisy
    5. Capilina
    6. Feel Sympathy
    7. Soda’s Ring
    8. Salt Queen
    9. Drop of Light: Special Mention
    10. Other Entrants Analysis

  4. 3. Final Workout Times and Training Analysis Summary (December 17th)

Race Overview

Race Name

Turquoise Stakes (GⅢ)

Date

December 20, 2025

Racecourse

Nakayama Racecourse

Distance

Turf 1600m

Race Type

Filly-only Handicap

1. Nakayama Turf 1600m: Course Characteristics and Bloodline Trends

Course Demands: Physical Aptitude and Unique Challenges

The Nakayama Racecourse’s turf 1600m is a notoriously challenging course. Its layout features a short run to the second corner, often disadvantaging wide draws. With JRA’s largest elevation difference of 5.3m and a demanding uphill climb before the finish line, this course demands more than just raw speed. Horses must possess the raw power to conquer the steep incline, the stamina to endure a tough race, and the agility to navigate its tricky turns.

Track Bias and Bloodline Tendencies: Lord Kanaloa’s Reign

Recent analyses of the Nakayama Turf 1600m reveal the undeniable dominance of Lord Kanaloa progeny. Their consistent strength is attributed to their inherent “sustained speed” and “ample musculature,” perfectly suited for Nakayama’s arduous uphill finish. Furthermore, Silver State progeny boast an exceptional win/place rate, marking them as a significant force to watch.

Key Sire Performance on Nakayama Turf 1600m

Lord Kanaloa

The undisputed king with unparalleled course performance.

Silver State

A standout prospect boasting an incredible place rate.

Epiphaneia

Proves true mettle in demanding conditions.

Kizuna

Consistently performs strongly in winter Nakayama.

Daiwa Major

Consistent performer, not to be underestimated.

2. Comprehensive Analysis of All Expected Runners

Bond Girl: Top Contender

Age: Filly 4 | Weight: 56kg | Jockey: Akihide Tsumura | Trainer: Hisashi Tezuka (Miho)

Workout Rating: A

On December 17, she displayed powerful footwork on the Miho uphill. Her mental stability is notable, showing excellent recovery from her previous defeat. Trainer Tezuka commented, “She’s more vibrant than she was for the Queen Elizabeth II Cup.”

Bloodline Analysis:

Sire Daiwa Major excels on the Nakayama Mile. Her 2nd place finish in the New Zealand Trophy (GⅡ) confirms her course aptitude.

Overall Verdict:

Her biggest challenge is the start. If she breaks smoothly, her ability is top-tier. The 56kg handicap is reasonable, making her one of the closest contenders for her first graded stakes victory.

Cerviatt: Strong Challenger

Age: Filly 3 | Weight: 54kg | Jockey: Keita Tosaki | Trainer: Tomokazu Takano (Ritto)

Workout Rating: S

On December 17, she showed high-quality footwork on the Ritto uphill, effortlessly. Her excellent condition was also evident a week prior, strongly suggesting she’s peaking in her 3-year-old autumn. Her rate of improvement is unmatched among the field.

Bloodline Analysis:

A well-bred filly, half-sister to Shonan Pandora (2 GⅠ wins). Possesses the speed of sire Lord Kanaloa and the power from dam-sire French Deputy, giving her the underlying strength to handle Nakayama’s steep incline.

Overall Verdict:

Her previous race performance indicates immediate GⅢ potential. The favorable 54kg handicap suggests she should overcome the class rise without difficulty.

Umbrail: Dark Horse Candidate

Age: Filly 5 | Weight: 55.5kg | Jockey: C. Lemaire | Trainer: Tetsuya Kimura (Miho)

Workout Rating: A

On December 17, she showed sharp responses on the Miho wood, indicating no signs of rust after a layoff. Kimura stable is renowned for preparing horses perfectly after a break, leaving no concerns.

Bloodline Analysis:

Full brother to Stelvio (Mile Championship winner). Her pedigree, by Lord Kanaloa out of a Falbrav mare, boasts high mile aptitude and the versatility and power required for the Nakayama course.

Overall Verdict:

While her recent GⅠ and GⅡ performances haven’t been standout, her ability is top-class in filly-only GⅢs. The continued partnership with jockey Lemaire is a strong positive, and a resurgence is highly possible.

Vip Daisy

Age: Filly 3 | Weight: 54kg | Jockey: Junya Nishimura | Trainer: Takeshi Matsushita (Ritto)

Workout Rating: B+

Aggressive training, including a strong time on the Ritto uphill a week prior. She is in perfect condition for her first challenge against older horses.

Bloodline Analysis:

Sire Satono Diamond, Dam-sire Maurice. The speed and power from her dam’s side are strongly inherited.

Overall Verdict:

The stable commented that her previous Shuka Sho (6th place) was too long. The anticipated distance reduction to a mile is a significant advantage. If she can leverage her weight allowance, she’s capable of contending for top honors.

Capilina

Age: Filly 4 | Weight: 56kg | Jockey: Norihiro Yokoyama | Trainer: Toshiaki Tajima (Miho)

Workout Rating: B

Her movement on the wood is light and her condition is good. The key is the distance extension from sprint races, but if she can run with a good rhythm, she might show a new dimension. Pay attention to jockey Norihiro Yokoyama’s skill.

Feel Sympathy

Age: Filly 6 | Weight: 53kg | Jockey: Akira Sugawara | Trainer: Shigeyuki Kojima (Miho)

Workout Rating: B

Her stable movement shows no signs of decline even at 6 years old. With a 2nd place finish in last year’s Turquoise Stakes, she’s a course specialist to watch out for. The 53kg handicap is also appealing.

Soda’s Ring

Age: Filly 5 | Weight: 55.5kg | Jockey: Takeshi Yokoyama | Trainer: Koichi Shintani (Ritto)

Workout Rating: C+

Delayed in a partnered workout, giving the impression she’s not quite at her peak. While highly capable, she might still be recovering from her last race, making her difficult to strongly endorse.

Salt Queen

Age: Filly 4 | Weight: 53kg | Jockey: Satoru Tomita | Trainer: Hidenori Take (Ritto)

Workout Rating: B+

Showed a sharp final furlong of 11.4 seconds on the CW course, maintaining excellent form. Sire Silver State boasts over a 25% place rate on the Nakayama Mile. If she can leverage her 53kg handicap, she could be a major player for an upset.

Drop of Light: Special Mention

Age: Filly 6 | Weight: 56kg | Jockey: Fuma Matsuwaka | Trainer: Yuichi Fukunaga (Ritto)

Workout Rating: A

Recorded an excellent overall time of 52.0 seconds on the Ritto uphill. Full of vitality, her speed is competitive at the GⅢ level. Depending on the race development, she has the potential to break into the top placings.

Other Entrants Analysis

3. Final Workout Times and Training Analysis Summary (December 17th)

Horse Name Course 4F/6F Time Last 1F Effort Comment/Analysis Umbrail Miho W 83.5(6F) 11.7 G-pole Push Last 11.7s is excellent. Her sharp response stands out. Capilina Miho W 67.3(5F) 11.5 G-pole Push Plenty of speed. The key is whether she can handle the distance extension. Kita Wing Miho W 57.3(4F) 12.0 Effortless Little improvement from previous run. Movement is consistent. June Orange Ritto Hill 54.3 12.6 Effortless Decent movement. Condition allows her to perform. Sing That Song Ritto Hill 54.4 12.8 Effortless Showing some temperament issues. Watch the paddock on race day. Sourire Mignon Ritto Hill 55.3 12.7 Effortless Smooth progress. Ascended the uphill effortlessly with good rhythm. Salt Queen Ritto CW 83.5(6F) 11.4 Effortless Last 1F 11.4s shows sharp acceleration. Maintains good form. Soda’s Ring Ritto Hill 53.3 12.4 Effortless Delayed in partnered workout. Perhaps not quite in peak condition. Cerviatt Ritto Hill 54.6 12.3 Effortless Supple footwork. In a period of peak condition. Drop of Light Ritto Hill 52.0 12.6 Effortless Overall time of 52.0s is excellent. Full of vitality. Vip Daisy Ritto Hill 54.9 12.4 Effortless The 52.7s from a week ago was impressive. Seems to be in early peak condition. Feel Sympathy Miho W 69.1(5F) 11.7 Effortless Stability typical of an older horse. Smooth movement. Ho O Laskar Miho Hill 53.7 12.9 Full Effort Pushed thoroughly to the finish. Bond Girl Miho Hill 54.3 12.9 Strong Finish More powerful than the clock suggests. Showing improved signs. Run for Vow Ritto Hill 55.4 13.0 Effortless Movement is heavy. Awaiting improvement. Lila Bonita Ritto Hill 54.4 12.4 Effortless Agile movement. Ready to run even after a long absence.

* Miho W = Miho Wood Course

ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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