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Categories: 注目ニュース
社台SS種牡馬「受胎失敗率」リスト公開：イクイノックス8.7%の快挙、ドウデュース26.7%の衝撃分析
Analysis by AI
An unofficial list detailing the “Unsuccessful Pregnancy Rates” (also known as Conception Failure Rates) of stallions standing at Shadai Stallion Station (Shadai SS) has recently been circulating on online forums, sparking considerable discussion among horse racing enthusiasts and breeders. This insightful list, calculated based on the number of unsuccessful coverings relative to the total number of mares bred, offers a crucial glimpse into a stallion’s reproductive efficacy and its implications for the future of the Thoroughbred breeding industry.
Particular attention has been drawn to the figures for highly popular stallions like Do Deuce, whose first-crop foals are eagerly anticipated, and the exceptional G1 champion Equinox, who retired with an astonishing race record. This article will delve into the contents of this widely discussed list, examine the average conception failure rates as debated by users, and explore the implications for each stallion’s standing in the breeding world.
目次
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Table of Contents
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Shadai SS Stallions: Unsuccessful Pregnancy Rates Revealed
- Shadai SS Stallion Unsuccessful Pregnancy Rate List
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Do Deuce’s 26.7% Unsuccessful Pregnancy Rate: Fan Reactions and Concerns
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Equinox (8.7%) and Nadal (8.3%) Lead with Exceptional Conception Rates
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Veteran Sires Orfevre (7.0%) and Gold Ship (5.7%) Show Remarkably Low Failure Rates
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The Crucial Impact of Conception Failure Rates on Thoroughbred Breeding and FAQs
- Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
-
Reference Information
Table of Contents
- Shadai SS Stallions: Unsuccessful Pregnancy Rates Revealed
- Do Deuce’s 26.7% Unsuccessful Pregnancy Rate: Fan Reactions and Concerns
- Equinox (8.7%) and Nadal (8.3%) Lead with Exceptional Conception Rates
- Veteran Sires Orfevre (7.0%) and Gold Ship (5.7%) Show Remarkably Low Failure Rates
- The Crucial Impact of Conception Failure Rates on Thoroughbred Breeding and FAQs
Shadai SS Stallions: Unsuccessful Pregnancy Rates Revealed
A list recently posted on online forums presents the unsuccessful pregnancy rates for key stallions currently standing at Shadai SS. These figures are presumed to be calculated as: (Total Coverings – Unsuccessful Cases) / Total Coverings * 100%.
Shadai SS Stallion Unsuccessful Pregnancy Rate List
Stallion Name Unsuccessful Pregnancy Rate Notes (Total Coverings – Unsuccessful Cases) Admire Mars 29.0% (162-47) Do Deuce 26.7% (202-54) Efforia 17.5% (183-32) Kitasan Black 15.1% (198-30) Siskin 14.9% (188-28) Epiphaneia 14.6% (198-29) Contrail 14.1% (185-26) Kizuna 13.0% (185-24) Equinox 8.7% (206-18) Nadal 8.3% (206-17) Orfevre 7.0% (57-4) Gold Ship 5.7% (122-7)
This data clearly highlights a significant range in fertility, with some stallions exhibiting high unsuccessful pregnancy rates while others maintain exceptionally low figures, indicating superior reproductive performance.
Do Deuce’s 26.7% Unsuccessful Pregnancy Rate: Fan Reactions and Concerns
Among the data, the 26.7% unsuccessful pregnancy rate for G1 winner Do Deuce garnered particular attention. Many users expressed reactions like, “It was indeed high,” and surprise at its proximity to Admire Mars’s 29.0% rate.
Concerns were raised that a lower conception rate could complicate planned breeding programs, potentially impacting his future covering numbers and overall appeal to breeders.
Conversely, some users defended Do Deuce, suggesting, “He was reportedly unwell initially, so if he recovered to achieve this number, it might not be so bad.” Information regarding the cancellation of his “unveiling ceremony” at the racetrack due to early-season health issues was cited as a potential basis for this theory. However, it was also noted that no official announcement has confirmed the health issues as the definitive cause, leading to conflicting information within the discussions.
Equinox (8.7%) and Nadal (8.3%) Lead with Exceptional Conception Rates
The standout performers in the list for successful conception were Nadal (8.3%) and Equinox (8.7%), both recording remarkably low unsuccessful pregnancy rates below 10%. This impressive feat led to widespread praise on forums, with comments such as, “Nadal has a high conception rate!”, “Equinox is excellent!”, and “A top sire on all fronts!”.
Particularly for Equinox, his phenomenal racetrack career combined with these strong fertility figures makes him an incredibly promising prospect as a sire. Generally, a conception success rate of 80% (meaning a failure rate of 20% or less) is considered acceptable for stallions. Therefore, the success rates exceeding 90% demonstrated by both Nadal and Equinox are truly exceptional and highly valued by breeders.
Veteran Sires Orfevre (7.0%) and Gold Ship (5.7%) Show Remarkably Low Failure Rates
Following the initial release of the list, additional data for veteran stallions Orfevre (7.0%) and Gold Ship (5.7%) was shared, further enriching the discussion.
The remarkably low unsuccessful pregnancy rates recorded by these seasoned sires drew numerous positive comments from users, including “Orfevre is also incredibly good!” and “As expected of Gold Ship!”. For Gold Ship specifically, some speculated that his low failure rate, considering his age, might be attributed to a “last-chance saloon” demand, where breeders bring older mares to him in hopes of a successful final breeding, indicating a tailored approach to his bookings.
The Crucial Impact of Conception Failure Rates on Thoroughbred Breeding and FAQs
A high unsuccessful pregnancy rate carries tangible disadvantages for Thoroughbred breeders, extending beyond immediate financial costs.
- Stallion Fee Payment Timing: While stud fees are typically paid upon “confirmation of conception,” meaning an unsuccessful covering doesn’t result in direct monetary loss for the fee itself, the broader impact is significant.
- Breeding Schedule and Mare Welfare: The primary issue is disruption to the breeding season’s schedule. If a mare fails to conceive, breeders must then seek another stallion. Popular sires may already be fully booked, making it difficult to re-breed the mare within the ideal window, and potentially causing undue stress or burden on the mare.
- Delayed Foal Birth: Re-breeding later in the season results in later-born foals. For horses aiming for classic races, a late birth (e.g., May foal) is often considered a disadvantage, as younger horses may struggle to compete against more mature contemporaries, making a high, consistent conception rate a critical factor for breeders.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q. What is the average unsuccessful pregnancy rate for stallions?
Based on discussions in online forums, a conception success rate of around 80% (equivalent to an unsuccessful pregnancy rate of approximately 20%) is often considered a benchmark. Success rates in the 70% range are generally viewed as somewhat low.
Q. Does a high unsuccessful pregnancy rate affect a stallion’s reputation?
Absolutely. A lower conception rate impacts the “predictability” of consistently producing quality foals. For stallions commanding high stud fees, this can make breeders hesitant, potentially leading to a reduction in the number of mares they send, as breeders will always seek to mitigate risks and ensure a return on their significant investment.
Reference Information
This article is based on content originally posted on the following online forum thread:
- Thread Title: 社台SSの受胎失敗率はこんなもんらしい (Shadai SS’s Unsuccessful Pregnancy Rates are About This)
- Reference URL: [Link to original forum post removed for safety]
ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)
データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。
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