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Categories: G1レース特集レース予想中央競馬予想（JRA）
第45回ジャパンカップ 2025
Analysis by AI
Japan Cup 2025: Comprehensive Workout Analysis – All 18 Runners Dissected
目次
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Japan Cup 2025: Key Workout Insights & Top Contenders
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Introduction: Previewing the 45th Japan Cup and the Critical Role of Workout Analysis
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Detailed Analysis: Workouts, Pedigree & Condition for All 18 Japan Cup Runners
- 1. Justin Palace (C6・Ritto Sugiyama Haru Stable)
- 2. Croix du Nord (C3・Ritto Saito Takashi Stable)
- 3. Cosmo Kyranda (C4・Miho Kato Tsukasa Stable)
- 4. Deep Monster (C7・Ritto Ikezoe Stable)
- 5. Sunrise Earth (C4・Ritto Ishizaka Stable)
- 6. Ho O Biscuits (C5・Miho Okumura Takeshi Stable)
- 7. Danon Berriga (C6・Miho Hori Stable)
- 8. Calandagan (G4・French F. Graffard Stable)
- 9. Seiun Hades (C6・Ritto Hashiguchi Stable)
- 10. Struve (G6・Miho Hori Stable)
- 11. Admire Terra (C4・Ritto Tomomichi Stable)
- 12. Yoho Lake (C7・Ritto Tomomichi Stable)
- 13. Brady Vegh (M5・Miho Miyata Stable)
- 14. Danon Decile (C4・Ritto Yasuda Sho Stable)
- 15. Masquerade Ball (C3・Miho Tezuka Stable)
- 16. Shin Emperor (C4・Ritto Yahagi Stable)
Japan Cup 2025: Key Workout Insights & Top Contenders
★ Tastiera: The sole recipient of our highest rating. His sharp movements in recent workouts signal a complete return to peak form, making him a formidable contender.
🏆 Danon Decile: The reigning Derby champion. A blistering sub-79 second workout (78s) on the CW track just one week out confirms he’s in prime condition, poised for a dominant comeback.
🚀 Croix du Nord: This sensational 3-year-old newcomer has consistently demonstrated exceptional growth and raw speed, clocking an outstanding 11.1 seconds for the final furlong in back-to-back workouts.
This comprehensive report delves into the intricate details of all 18 runners, providing a thorough analysis of their latest workouts, pedigrees, and post-race comments. Each horse’s condition is then assigned an overall rating from S to C, offering unparalleled insight for the upcoming Japan Cup.
Introduction: Previewing the 45th Japan Cup and the Critical Role of Workout Analysis
Scheduled for November 30, 2025, at Tokyo Racecourse over 2400m on turf, the 45th Japan Cup (GI) stands as one of the world’s premier races, vying for unparalleled prize money and prestige. This year’s field boasts an exceptional lineup, featuring a star-studded cast including Justin Palace, Tastiera, Danon Decile, Croix du Nord, and Calandagan. This report offers an exhaustive analysis of all 18 declared runners, with a primary focus on pre-race “Oikiri” (workout/training) information. We integrate crucial multi-faceted elements such as pedigree, and post-race comments from jockeys and connections, providing a logical and objective evaluation grounded in concrete data rather than speculation.
Detailed Analysis: Workouts, Pedigree & Condition for All 18 Japan Cup Runners
Each horse’s individual analysis is meticulously structured across four critical perspectives: “Bloodline and Course Aptitude,” “Previous Race Review and Key Challenges,” “Mid-term and Final Workout Analysis,” and “Overall Condition Rating.”
1. Justin Palace (C6・Ritto Sugiyama Haru Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Deep Impact, out of a Royal Anthem mare. Shows high aptitude for Tokyo’s 2400m turf and skillful maneuvering from an inner draw.
- Previous Race: 3rd in the Tenno Sho (Autumn). Unable to unleash his full potential due to a slow pace, but still secured a commendable 3rd place. The extended distance presents a prime opportunity.
- Workout: His final workout on the CW track showed an effortless final furlong of 11.5s. The concise note ‘coat gleaming’ strongly suggests peak internal physical condition.
- Overall Rating: A Evident improvement from his last outing. His mental composure and excellent physical condition are striking, indicating he is perfectly prepared.
2. Croix du Nord (C3・Ritto Saito Takashi Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Kitasan Black, out of a Cape Cross mare. Combines stamina and speed. The weight allowance for a 3-year-old colt is a significant advantage.
- Previous Race: 14th in the Arc de Triomphe. Despite a disappointing performance in Europe, his post-overseas adjustment has proceeded smoothly.
- Workout: Both the pre-race and final workouts saw him clock an exceptional 11.1 seconds for the final furlong in two consecutive weeks. The short note ‘excellent readiness’ confirms no lingering fatigue from his overseas campaign.
- Overall Rating: S Displaying astonishing recovery and growth. His outstanding speed capabilities will be a major asset on Tokyo’s long straight.
3. Cosmo Kyranda (C4・Miho Kato Tsukasa Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Al Ain, out of a Southern Image mare. Excels in sustained speed, ideally suited for a race where he can maintain a long, strong burst.
- Previous Race: 12th in the Tenno Sho (Autumn). A slow pace and instant acceleration did not suit him. A longer distance, demanding more stamina, could see a significant turnaround.
- Workout: His final trackwork on the uphill course saw him clock a time close to his personal best. ‘Sure-footed’ indicates abundant power and stamina are at their peak.
- Overall Rating: B A fascinating contender if the race develops into a tough, stamina-testing affair. While concerns remain about his burst of speed, his overall condition is good.
4. Deep Monster (C7・Ritto Ikezoe Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Deep Impact, out of a Bellamy Road mare. Showing signs of late maturity, truly coming into his own at 7 years old.
- Previous Race: 1st in the Kyoto Daishoten. Secured a commanding victory, capitalizing on an inside draw. A similar, highly complete performance is expected this time.
- Workout: Recorded a personal best-equalling excellent time on the CW track one week prior. His final workout, with an effortless 11.2s for the final furlong, shows high-level consistency.
- Overall Rating: A His previous victory confirms his complete maturation. No signs of decline, maintaining excellent form.
5. Sunrise Earth (C4・Ritto Ishizaka Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Rey de Oro, out of a Manhattan Cafe mare. Well-suited for Tokyo’s 2400m with abundant stamina.
- Previous Race: 2nd in the Kyoto Daishoten. Finished a strong 2nd, demonstrating impressive raw power despite veering wide on the fourth turn due to immaturity.
- Workout: Underwent rigorous, sustained training for two consecutive weeks, aimed at fostering mental growth. The note ‘showing calmness’ is a highly positive sign.
- Overall Rating: A Temperamental issues are trending towards improvement. Having completed hard training, he is physically and mentally sharp.
6. Ho O Biscuits (C5・Miho Okumura Takeshi Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Mind Your Biscuits, out of a Ruler Ship mare. Capable over middle distances, but 2400m in a GI race presents a significant challenge for his optimal distance.
- Previous Race: 13th in the Tenno Sho (Autumn). Unable to settle into his own pace and overexerting himself mid-race. Settling will be key.
- Workout: Surpassed his training partner in the final workout, showing ‘improved responsiveness’. While his movements are nimble, his true best distance appears to be 2000m or less.
- Overall Rating: C Though his movements are good, the distance remains a significant concern. He will require a favorable race pace and circumstances.
7. Danon Berriga (C6・Miho Hori Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Heart’s Cry, out of a Tizway mare. Excels in the long, demanding straight of Tokyo Racecourse, making his course aptitude arguably unmatched in the field.
- Previous Race: 13th in the Niigata Kinen. A challenging race hindered by a lack of smooth running, raising questions about his overall condition.
- Workout: His final workout revealed his old habit of ‘veering inwards,’ and his pre-race evaluation noted ‘slow responsiveness.’ It’s difficult to describe him as being in peak condition.
- Overall Rating: C While he possesses GI-level ability, concerns arise from his workout performance. He needs to overcome these issues.
8. Calandagan (G4・French F. Graffard Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Gleneagles, out of a Sinndar mare. European stamina bloodline combined with a miler’s speed. His adaptability to Japan’s faster track conditions will be crucial.
- Previous Race: 1st in the British Champion Stakes. Arrives in Japan with the momentum of a commanding victory in the UK. The main challenge will be handling transportation and environmental changes.
- Workout: After arriving in Japan, he had his final workout on the turf course at Tokyo Racecourse. The note ‘good body and movement’ suggests high adaptability to the new environment.
- Overall Rating: A Shows no signs of travel fatigue, with smooth footwork. He carries an intriguing ‘unknown’ factor.
9. Seiun Hades (C6・Ritto Hashiguchi Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Silver State, out of a Manhattan Cafe mare. Flexible over various distances, but a GI race demands true stamina and class.
- Previous Race: 7th in the Tenno Sho (Autumn). The jockey commented on his lack of focus. If he can concentrate, he possesses the ability to contend.
- Workout: Received a positive assessment of ‘lively movement’ on the uphill track one week prior. His final workout was also smooth, indicating steady preparation.
- Overall Rating: B Condition is stable, but for a GI victory, significant mental growth is essential.
10. Struve (G6・Miho Hori Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by King Kamehameha, out of a Deep Impact mare. An elite pedigree that makes Tokyo 2400m arguably his absolute best stage.
- Previous Race: 5th in the Arima Kinen. Despite losing ground on the fourth turn, he finished 5th. Had he run smoothly, he would have undoubtedly been a top contender.
- Workout: Lagged behind his training partner in the final workout, but was still rated as having ‘excellent enthusiasm.’ The benefit from his previous race is substantial.
- Overall Rating: A His previous race can be disregarded. His condition is improving, and he should be monitored as a potential dark horse.
11. Admire Terra (C4・Ritto Tomomichi Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Rey de Oro, out of a Heart’s Cry mare. An exceptionally well-bred horse connected to Deep Impact, possessing very high aptitude for Tokyo’s 2400m.
- Previous Race: 4th in the Kyoto Daishoten. The track conditions may not have suited him, and a firm track at Tokyo could lead to a significant performance boost.
- Workout: Showed a sharp extension with an 11.4s final furlong on the CW track one week prior. His final workout, maintaining continuous effort, reflects the typical thorough training from the Tomomichi stable. He could rise to prominence if the race becomes a test of stamina.
- Overall Rating: A Holds the potential for his excellent bloodline to truly blossom. Prepared for a long-distance challenge, he is biding his time.
12. Yoho Lake (C7・Ritto Tomomichi Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Deep Impact, out of a French Deputy mare. Having returned from a long layoff, he consistently delivers stable results.
- Previous Race: 3rd in the All Comers. A strong 3rd place despite being fresh off a break. Further improvement is expected with this race under his belt.
- Workout: Recorded a blazing 79.9 seconds for 6 furlongs on the CW track one week prior. His final workout on the uphill course was also an impressive 52 seconds flat. ‘Good movement’ indicates he maintains high vitality.
- Overall Rating: A At 7 years old, he shows no signs of slowing down. Significant further progress is anticipated in his second race back.
13. Brady Vegh (M5・Miho Miyata Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Lord Kanaloa, out of a Deep Impact mare. Her pedigree instills absolute confidence for the burst of speed required on the Tokyo course.
- Previous Race: 10th in the Tenno Sho (Autumn). Unable to utilize her characteristic acceleration due to a slow pace.
- Workout: Her final workout showcased ‘powerful strides,’ clocking 11.4s for the final furlong. There’s no sign of being affected by her previous race’s defeat, and her overall feel is excellent.
- Overall Rating: S Her improvement in the second race back is substantial, and she possesses the potential for a complete turnaround if the race pace suits her.
14. Danon Decile (C4・Ritto Yasuda Sho Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Epiphaneia. This year’s Japan Derby winner, his aptitude for Tokyo 2400m is unequivocally proven.
- Previous Race: 5th in the International Stakes. Finished 5th in an overseas G1. While it’s his first race back in Japan, the Derby winner’s potential is beyond doubt.
- Workout: Recorded an astounding 78.2 seconds on the CW track one week prior. His final workout, with an effortless 11.4s for the final furlong, indicates he is perfectly tuned. The assessment ‘excellent physique’ reinforces his top condition.
- Overall Rating: S The Derby winner is fully prepared for his resurgence. His overwhelming workout performance establishes him as a central figure in this race.
15. Masquerade Ball (C3・Miho Tezuka Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Duramente, out of a Deep Impact mare. Possesses an explosive turn of foot as his primary weapon.
- Previous Race: 1st in the Tenno Sho (Autumn).
- Workout: Clocked 11.3s for the final furlong one week prior, showing ‘high-level consistency.’ His final workout on the uphill course also noted ‘maintaining good feel,’ indicating excellent form.
- Overall Rating: A While the adjustment aims more at maintaining good form rather than significant improvement, his consistent high-level performance is highly commendable.
16. Shin Emperor (C4・Ritto Yahagi Stable)
- Bloodline & Course Aptitude: Sired by Siyouni. The full brother to Arc de Triomphe winner Sottsass, this European blue-blood thrives in tough, grinding races where his stamina shines.
- Previous Race: 6th in the Irish Champion Stakes. Returning from an overseas campaign, he’s undergone tough training characteristic of the Yahagi stable.
- Workout: Clocked a sub-79 second time (78s) on the CW track one week prior. The assessment ‘no travel fatigue’ confirms his resilience. His final workout also noted ‘light footwork.’
- Overall Rating: A His resilience and tough preparation suggest he’s fully recovered from his overseas campaign. He’s a formidable force with deep European stamina.
ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)
データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。
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ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)
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