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Categories: 最新レース予想
【エルムS 2025 追い切り評価】全頭診断！S評価は2頭、プロが唸る絶好の動きを見せたのは？
Analysis by AI
目次
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The Summer Dirt King Decider! Elms Stakes: Trackwork Holds the Key to Victory
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Elms Stakes 2025: Trackwork Assessment Ranking & Final Judgments
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Top Performers: Two Horses Earn ‘S’ Rating for Impeccable Trackwork
- Lord Kronos: Surpassing Previous Form, Set for Maiden Graded Stakes Win
- Walzer Schall: Powerful Movements Defy Long Layoff
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Highly Rated: In-Depth Analysis of ‘A’ Grade Contenders – Potential for High Returns?
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- Dura Erede (A+): Enhanced Training for Revenge after Last Year’s Second Place
- Brian Sense (A+): Dominated in a Partnered Workout. Similar Form to March S Win
- William Barows (A): Thorough Training in Hokkaido. Maintaining Good Form
- Perriere (A): Carrying Momentum from Previous Win. Good Hokkaido Suitability Shines
- T O Drehphon (A): No Signs of Fatigue Despite Frequent Runs. Repeat of Last Year’s Burst Possible
- Peisha Es (A-): Same Prep as Last Year’s Win, but Jockey Expresses Concern
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B-Rated and Below: Horses with Concerns and Why Their Form is Questionable
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- Matenro Sky (B+): Light-footed on Dirt. Showing Signs of Full Maturity
- Torvatore (B): Movements Decent, but First-Time Dirt Runner with No Dirt Trackwork
- Shonan Raishin (C): Lack of Vigor in Movements, Possibly Due to Accumulated Fatigue
- Sulayman (C): Insufficient Trackwork, Unlikely to Show Improvement
- Mickey Nuchibana (C): Few Workouts After Layoff, Not Yet at Peak Condition
- World Tachyon (D): Continued Poor Form, No Encouraging Signs in Trackwork
The Summer Dirt King Decider! Elms Stakes: Trackwork Holds the Key to Victory
The 30th Elms Stakes (G3), a prestigious dirt graded race that brightens the summer in Hokkaido, is set to thunder off on August 9, 2025, over 1700m on the Sapporo Racecourse dirt track. This isn’t just another summer graded stakes; it holds significant importance as top-tier horses eye the autumn G1 season. This year’s lineup is formidable, featuring G1 winner Dura Erede, aiming to avenge last year’s second-place finish, dirt maestro William Barows, and rising star Lord Kronos.
A crucial factor for success in this race, and indeed for handicapping, is a horse’s “trackwork” (追い切り). The Sapporo Dirt 1700m starts in front of the grandstand, covering slightly more than a full lap. With a short final straight of approximately 264m and gentle corners, statistics show this course heavily favors front-running horses. Consequently, the ability to sustain high speed is more critical than a sudden burst of acceleration.
Every nuance of a horse’s trackwork reflects how well they’ve adapted to Hokkaido’s climate after long-distance transport from Honshu, and whether they are in peak condition for this unique course layout. This article integrates reports from various media and expert opinions to provide a thorough diagnosis of all runners’ trackwork. We evaluate their condition on a five-point scale (S, A, B, C, D) to offer insights crucial for your betting strategy.
Elms Stakes 2025: Trackwork Assessment Ranking & Final Judgments
Before diving into detailed analysis, first review the final trackwork assessments for each horse. Discover which contenders are in prime condition and which might be carrying concerns. This comprehensive list is your essential first step in forecasting the race.
Elms Stakes 2025 Trackwork Evaluation: Final Verdicts
Horse Name Overall Rating Trackwork Rating Key Highlights Training Base Lord Kronos S S Better than last start, impeccable condition. Stable confident. Hakodate Walzer Schall S S Powerful movements despite layoff. Ready to perform. Sapporo Dura Erede A+ A Improved training volume & quality from last year. Ready for revenge. Hakodate Brian Sense A+ A Dominated in a partnered workout. Similar form to March S win. Hakodate William Barows A A Thorough training in Hokkaido. Maintaining good form. Hakodate Perriere A A Carrying momentum from previous win. Good Hokkaido suitability. Hakodate T O Drehphon A A No signs of fatigue despite frequent runs. Repeat of last year’s burst possible. Sapporo Peisha Es A- A Same prep as last year’s win, but jockey expresses concern. Sapporo Matenro Sky B+ A Light-footed on dirt. Showing signs of full maturity. Hakodate Torvatore B A Movements decent, but first-time dirt runner with no dirt trackwork. Hakodate Shonan Raishin C B Lack of vigor in movements, possibly due to accumulated fatigue. Hakodate Sulayman C B Insufficient trackwork, unlikely to show improvement. Hakodate Mickey Nuchibana C B Few workouts after layoff, not yet at peak condition. Hakodate World Tachyon D B Continued poor form, no encouraging signs in trackwork. Hakodate
Top Performers: Two Horses Earn ‘S’ Rating for Impeccable Trackwork
Our trackwork assessment identified two horses whose movements stood out significantly above the rest. Both are judged to be in perfect condition, poised to claim a graded stakes title.
Lord Kronos: Surpassing Previous Form, Set for Maiden Graded Stakes Win
Lord Kronos earns our highest “S” trackwork rating. The colt underwent highly intensive training even before arriving in Hokkaido, clocking a swift 11.3 seconds for the final furlong on the woodchip course two weeks prior, and even sub-10 seconds on July 27. His final gallop showed immense confidence, reflecting the stable’s high expectations.
Notably, his current condition appears superior to his previous start in the Heian S (2nd place). While he ran well then, his trackwork included moments where he lagged behind his partners. This time, however, such concerns are absent; he truly seems to be at his physical and mental peak. Having consistently performed in graded races, with a 3rd in the March S and a 2nd in the Heian S, he is now on a trajectory of full maturity, with his long-sought first title within grasp. Jockey Yusuke Fujioka’s confident remarks, “His condition is in a good range again. We aim for the title,” underscore the strong belief in his chances.
Walzer Schall: Powerful Movements Defy Long Layoff
The other “S” rated horse is Walzer Schall, returning from a layoff since the March S. While extended breaks often raise red flags, Walzer Schall’s electrifying trackwork has dispelled all doubts. His final gallop on the Sapporo dirt course showcased a sharp 11.6-second closing furlong, effortlessly passing his schooling partner. This performance emphatically reaffirms his high capabilities.
Based on these movements, we analyze that he is ready to unleash his full potential immediately, despite the layoff. Interestingly, while many experts praise his trackwork, jockey Yoshihiro Furukawa commented, “He paused slightly when I gave him a light cue.” This might suggest he hasn’t fully switched into race mode yet, but it could also indicate his immense power once he gets going. If he finds a smooth rhythm in the race, we could witness an explosive performance. As the 2024 March S winner, he is a proven G3-level performer, and his inherent potential cannot be underestimated.
Highly Rated: In-Depth Analysis of ‘A’ Grade Contenders – Potential for High Returns?
Following the top two “S” rated horses, the “A” grade group is also brimming with contenders in excellent form. Each possesses the condition to challenge for victory, and depending on race dynamics, could very well seize the spotlight.
Dura Erede (A+): Enhanced Training for Revenge after Last Year’s Second Place
Dura Erede, who finished second in last year’s Elms Stakes, is meticulously prepared for revenge. His final gallop on the Hakodate dirt track displayed a sharp 5-furlong time of 70.2 seconds, closing in 11.4 seconds. Jockey Kohei Matsuyama conveyed his positive impression, stating, “His reaction was solid, and his movement at the finish was good.”
The most compelling factor is the comparison to his preparation last year. Then, he returned from a roughly four-month layoff with only five trackwork sessions, giving the impression of being somewhat rushed. This year, despite a slightly longer five-month layoff, his trackwork count has significantly increased to nine. The boost isn’t just in quantity but also in quality, signaling that this isn’t merely a prep race; the stable is genuinely committed to securing the title. Some experts even assign him the highest “SS” rating due to his exceptional movements, confirming the enduring class of the 2022 Hopeful S (G1) winner. His course suitability is also proven, and he is perfectly set for redemption.
Brian Sense (A+): Dominated in a Partnered Workout. Similar Form to March S Win
Brian Sense, who suffered from a slow pace in the Heian S (9th), is in superb condition for a strong comeback. His recent trackwork has been described as “a series of good movements.” In particular, his final gallop saw him utterly dominate his partner, World Tachyon, leaving no doubt about his readiness.
Experts widely agree that his current condition is “closer to his G2-winning form (March S) two starts ago, rather than his disappointing previous run.” This is a highly encouraging sign. Jockey Yuji Tannai, partnering with the horse for the first time, rode him in trackwork for two consecutive weeks, commenting, “His movements were good. I feel positive heading into the race.” This alleviates any concerns about the jockey change. With a favorable race development, he has every chance to display his graded stakes-winning ability.
William Barows (A): Thorough Training in Hokkaido. Maintaining Good Form
William Barows, a consistent performer in top-tier dirt races, is also progressing smoothly. He arrived early at Hakodate Racecourse and completed a substantial seven to eight workouts on the woodchip course. This meticulous preparation paid off in his final gallop, where he clocked 5 furlongs in 68.1 seconds, closing in 12.5 seconds, earning praise for his “plenty of vitality.”
Reassuring comments from the stable, such as “no signs of summer fatigue” and “no excess weight,” suggest he is in robust physical and mental condition. His movements conveyed a lightness beyond the clock, showcasing the undeniable class of a G1 Kashiwa Kinen 2nd-place finisher. There’s no doubt he’s in a state to deliver his best, and he is expected to be a major player here.
Perriere (A): Carrying Momentum from Previous Win. Good Hokkaido Suitability Shines
Perriere enters the Elms Stakes with strong momentum after his decisive victory in the Oonuma S. His excellent form was evident in trackwork, where he easily passed his partner a week prior, showing movements on par with his last winning effort. The assessment “carrying the momentum from his previous win” perfectly describes him, and jockey Daisuke Sasaki vouches for his “maintained good form.”
Whispers among some analysts suggest “Hokkaido might suit this type of horse,” based on his maiden race and recent performance, elevating expectations for his course suitability. The 2023 Unicorn S (G3) winner has a strong possibility of achieving a full resurgence on the northern island.
T O Drehphon (A): No Signs of Fatigue Despite Frequent Runs. Repeat of Last Year’s Burst Possible
Despite a short two-week turnaround from his 2nd place in the Marine S, T O Drehphon shows no signs of fatigue. His final gallop on the Sapporo dirt track registered a sharp 6-furlong time of 79.1 seconds. He powerfully pulled away from his partner with just a light tap of the whip, confirming his “maintained good form.” Jockey Genki Maruyama also feels confident, stating, “I think he’s good.” A repeat of his spectacular run from last year wouldn’t be surprising given his current condition. The advantage of having experienced the course in his previous race will also be beneficial.
Peisha Es (A-): Same Prep as Last Year’s Win, but Jockey Expresses Concern
Last year’s Elms Stakes champion, Peisha Es, is following the exact same winning formula for his title defense. Like last year, he returns from an 18-week layoff with an identical 10 trackwork sessions. A sharp final furlong of 11.6 seconds on the Sapporo dirt a week prior suggests that, following this pattern, he should run well again.
However, a significant concern has emerged. Jockey Kazuo Yokoyama has made an unusually critical comment about the horse’s physical condition, noting, “The looseness and stiffness are noticeably prominent.” This conflicting information – a “champion’s adjustment pattern” versus “jockey’s harsh assessment” – makes Peisha Es the most perplexing horse in the race. Whether to trust the proven pattern or give weight to the jockey’s feel creates a significant dilemma for handicappers. Considering this risk-versus-reward scenario, we’ve assigned him an A- rating.
B-Rated and Below: Horses with Concerns and Why Their Form is Questionable
In horse racing analysis, discerning strong contenders is vital, but equally important is accurately identifying horses whose form is questionable. Here, we explain why certain horses received lower trackwork assessments.
Matenro Sky (B+): Light-footed on Dirt. Showing Signs of Full Maturity
His trackwork movements were light, clocking a final furlong of 12.0 seconds on the Hakodate dirt, which in isolation would warrant an “A” rating. His exclusive training on dirt is also a positive. However, as a turf-to-dirt switch with limited experience on the surface, he still appears a step below the top contenders.
Torvatore (B): Movements Decent, but First-Time Dirt Runner with No Dirt Trackwork
While his movements themselves were not poor, a major red flag is that this first-time dirt runner has not completed a single trackwork session on the dirt course. The stable also seems to be in exploratory mode, stating, “We’ll see what kind of race he runs on dirt for the first time.” Given this uncertainty, a cautious approach is warranted.
Shonan Raishin (C): Lack of Vigor in Movements, Possibly Due to Accumulated Fatigue
His final gallop showed a muted response to the whip, described as “unremarkable movements.” Concerns about the cumulative effects of his recent frequent runs are high, and he does not appear to be in prime condition.
Sulayman (C): Insufficient Trackwork, Unlikely to Show Improvement
The lack of trackwork is striking, with only five sessions in a 10-week break. Consequently, his final gallop movements were ordinary, indicating no significant change from his recent string of heavy defeats.
Mickey Nuchibana (C): Few Workouts After Layoff, Not Yet at Peak Condition
Returning from a layoff with a limited number of trackwork sessions, Mickey Nuchibana is not yet in his best form, still a step away from peak condition.
World Tachyon (D): Continued Poor Form, No Encouraging Signs in Trackwork
Following a string of disappointing performances, World Tachyon’s trackwork offered no positive highlights or encouraging signs of improvement.
ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)
データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。
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